The crypto market has recovered slightly to $3 trillion amid sentiment towards a potential Santa Claus rally in Bitcoin and other crypto assets. However, crypto market crash jitters persist amid today’s largest-ever options expiry.
Crypto traders anticipated volatility as over $27 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP (XRP), and Solana (SOL) options expire. Eyes will also be on options expiry on the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
Crypto Market Crash Fears Mount amid $23 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry
According to the largest derivatives crypto exchange Deribit, massive 262K BTC options with a notional value of $23.38 billion are set to expire on December 26, with a put-call ratio of 0.33.
However, the 24-hour put volume is significantly higher than the 24-hour call volume. The put-call ratio of 1.72 indicates traders are extremely bearish. Crypto market traders are adjusting their positions amid intense uncertainty and thin liquidity.
Moreover, the max pain price was $95,000, above the current Bitcoin price of nearly $89,000. This typically implies a high odds of a pullback in BTC price towards the max pain. However, more puts are concentrated in the $80,000 to $90,000K range, with the $90,000 strike price as the key resistance level.
As per GreeksLive, rollover trades are now the dominant force in trading volume. This creates significant signal noise, making options data unreliable as a trading signal in recent days. Traders are closely monitoring volatility levels and institutional flow indicators to deter a crypto market crash.
Analysts are bearish on Bitcoin despite slightly upside momentum as every pump this December is followed by a dump. Analyst Caleb Franzen suggests traders to keep an eye on the 200-day moving average on the 4-hour chart, which continues to act as resistance.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows predicted that a daily close above the $89,500 level will trigger a rally towards the $100,000 level. However, a daily close below the $85,000 level will dump BTC price below the $80,000 zone.
What’s Next for Ethereum Price After Expiry?
The crypto market also awaits the potential impact of the Ethereum options expiry. 1268K ETH options with a notional value of over $3.77 billion are set to expire. The put-call ratio is 0.43.
In the last 24 hours, put volume was higher than the call volume, with a put-call ratio of 1.26. It shows bearish sentiment among traders as puts dominated calls.
Also, the max pain point at $3,000 indicates a pullback may occur after expiry. ETH options traders are focusing on $2,950 as a key level to hold amid crypto market crash concerns.
Deribit said “Positioning reflects caution, not capitulation. Post-expiry flows will matter more than price.”
ETH price jumped more than 1% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $2,978. The 24-hour low and high are $2,891 and $2,991, respectively. However, a more than 30% increase in trading volume suggests a rebound.
Will XRP Rebound to Max Pain Price of $2?
24K XRP options with a notional value of more than $46.25 million are set to expire today. The put-call ratio is 0.49, but it has climbed to 1.57 as put volume exceeds call volume.
The max pain point is at $2.60, above the XRP price of $1.87 at the time of writing. However, traders are betting on XRP to remain under pressure as it trades near an inflection point.
Analyst Ali Martinez predicted a potential XRP price crash to $1.10 if it breaks below the $1.80 support level. However, bulls successfully holding the crucial zone between $1.80 and $1.90 will preserve the broader bullish structure, despite a crypto market crash.
Neutral Stance on Solana (SOL)
112K SOL options with a notional value of over $139.45 million to expire, with a neutral put-call ratio of 0.49.
In the last 24 hours, call volume was higher than the put volume, with a put-call ratio of 0.81. This signals that options traders are overall neutral and awaiting the expiry of Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto options for cues on market direction.
Also, the max pain point is at $180, with traders expecting Solana to rebound above $124 in the upcoming days. SOL price has rebounded from $119 to trade at almost 1% higher at $123.40. Trading volume has increased by 65% over the past 24 hours.
