Bitcoin traded near $113,700 on Thursday, failing to hold above $115,000 as resistance from the 50-day moving average capped a rebound attempt.
The broader crypto market added just 1% to $3.86 trillion in capitalization, a move analysts described as a bounce on the way down rather than the start of a recovery.
“The technology sector in traditional financial markets remains under pressure, dampening the mood of cryptocurrency buyers,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Bitcoin’s unsuccessful attempt to return above $115K only highlights the market’s weakness.”
ETF flows were indicative of caution. According to SoSoValue, bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $523 million on August 19, followed by $311 million on Wednesday and $192 million on Thursday. Meanwhile, ether ETFs incurred over $500 million in outflows during the same period.
The consecutive withdrawals reversed the prior week’s inflows. Kronos Research attributed the weakness to profit-taking and liquidations after BTC’s record high earlier in August.
Sentiment has also been hit by headlines. The SEC is investigating Alt5 Sigma after its $1.5 billion deal with World Liberty Financial, a firm tied to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Ethereum’s on-chain metrics have softened, with active addresses down 28% since July 30.
ETH traded at $4,289, up just 0.4% on the day but still down more than 7% from recent highs. Analysts say the drop in active addresses — now 28% below the levels seen in late July — reflects softer retail participation and could cap near-term upside even if bitcoin steadies.
XRP and Solana showed similar patterns, with XRP slipping to $2.87 and Solana at $183. Both tokens have declined by more than 6% in the past week, mirroring bitcoin’s weakness. Traders say a dovish Fed pivot could spark short-term rebounds, but without fresh inflows the moves may remain limited.
Derivatives markets point to hedging pressure, meanwhile. The 30-day delta skew in bitcoin options reached 12% this week, a four-month high, reflecting demand for downside protection.
“Bitcoin’s weakness is currently driven primarily by macroeconomic factors,” said Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, in an email to CoinDesk. “No significant bearish crypto-native developments are weighing on the market.”
“In contrast, equity markets are experiencing elevated selling pressure, and this broader risk-off sentiment is spilling over into Bitcoin,” he added.
Lienkha said it was unclear if the current positioning represents short-term hedging ahead of Powell’s speech or a deeper turn. “Markets appear to be approaching the later stages of the bullish trend,” he said. “It remains unclear whether the present pullback represents the start of a broader trend reversal or merely another correction on the path to a final peak.”
While near-term sentiment has soured, some analysts continue to point to longer-term catalysts. Bitwise said U.S. pension plan allocations could drive Bitcoin to $200,000 by year-end, potentially exceeding the impact of spot ETF approvals. First inflows could arrive as early as autumn, the firm added.
For now, though, traders remain focused on Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday. A dovish tone could ease pressure on risk assets, while any reluctance to endorse cuts may extend the slide that has already taken bitcoin 9% off its highs.