Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt recently suggested that Bitcoin continues to outperform gold in the long-term store-of-value narrative.
He noted this in his latest analysis of the BTC/GLD ratio. According to the market veteran, the premier crypto asset has been steadily “kicking gold’s arse” and could be on the verge of a monumental rally if it can break key resistance levels.
Bitcoin vs Gold
In his chart, Brandt revealed a long-term uptrend in the BTC/GLD ratio, indicating Bitcoin’s increasing strength relative to gold over the past few years. The ratio previously found support in the high teens, specifically around the 14 oz mark, which helped launch the current rally.
Brandt identified an important resistance level at 32 oz of gold. This level has previously capped Bitcoin’s strength, marking a major area of contention between bulls and bears.
If Bitcoin can break through this roadblock, Brandt sees a target of over 100 oz of gold per Bitcoin, with a long-term projection reaching as high as 123.75 oz. Based on current gold prices (around $2,613 per ounce), this translates to a Bitcoin price target of $323,358.
In addition, the chart shows that Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a pattern of rising wedges and breakout formations. Notably, BTC has seen an uptrend since bottomed out in 2018. The current setup is forming another ascending triangle, a bullish pattern.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has shown similar parabolic runs in the past, and if it can maintain its current upward trajectory, there is a high probability of reaching Brandt’s target.
Meanwhile, the market veteran estimates there is a 30% chance that the market could “roll over,” as Bitcoin’s dominance might falter. However, the Bayesian analysis still gives a strong possibility of Bitcoin outpacing gold if the resistance is breached.
BTC/GLD Short-Term Outlook
Meanwhile, the short-term BTCGLD outlook advises immediate caution. Notably, BTC is currently trading below the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 25.59 oz per BTC, as it currently changes hands around 23.27 oz.
Bitcoin’s failure to break above this moving average shows possible short-term weakness. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45.49, pointing to a neutral-to-bearish sentiment.
The RSI has seen a downward slope over the past few weeks, adding to concerns about Bitcoin’s immediate potential to reclaim bullish momentum. To initiate a sustained rally, Bitcoin would need to break back above the 21-week SMA and push the RSI into bullish territory.
The 21-week SMA has always acted as a key pivot for Bitcoin. The last major breakout above this moving average occurred in October 2023, when Bitcoin traded at around 16 oz per BTC.
This breakout ignited a powerful 112% surge, driving Bitcoin to a peak of 34 oz in March 2024. If Bitcoin can regain this level of momentum and surpass the 25.59 oz mark, it could lead to a renewed upward trend, possibly targeting Brandt’s projection.
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