Bitcoin led the pullback among majors, falling roughly 5% intraday to $84,623 at one point before stabilizing higher. Ethereum followed with a sharper percentage decline, while most large-cap altcoins mirrored the move. The weakness comes as markets digest the US Federal Reserve’s first policy decision of 2026, persistent ETF outflows, and renewed geopolitical risk tied to Middle East tensions. Together, these forces are reinforcing a consolidation phase rather than signaling a full-blown trend reversal.
Bitcoin price today: what the numbers say
Bitcoin entered Thursday near $90,315 but slipped below the key $90,000 psychological level during Asian and early European trading. The session low printed around $87,653, before buyers stepped in. On a weekly basis, BTC is down about 2.4%, trading within a $86,319–$90,475 range. That range underscores a market caught between dip buyers and macro-driven sellers.
Ethereum also lost ground, trading near $2,942, down about 2.5% on the day and 2.2% over the past week. ETH failed to hold above $3,000, a level that had acted as short-term support earlier in the month. Among other majors, Dogecoin slid roughly 4.5%, Solana fell more than 3%, and Litecoin dropped close to 6%. Binance Coin showed relative resilience with a near 1% decline, while Tron was the only gainer among the top ten.
The Nasdaq Crypto Index echoed the move, falling more than 5%, highlighting that the sell-off was broad-based rather than isolated to one token or sector.
Federal Reserve policy and liquidity remain the core driver
The immediate macro catalyst was the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, a move that was widely expected by markets. The lack of a surprise limited downside volatility, but it also failed to provide fresh upside fuel. Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered no clear signal of imminent rate cuts, reinforcing the message that policy easing is unlikely until later in 2026 unless economic data weakens materially.
Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, said the rate hold preserves existing liquidity without tightening conditions further, which can be constructive for crypto in the near term. However, she emphasized that the current environment favors consolidation over a breakout. In her view, Bitcoin is likely to trade in an $88,000–$91,000 range, with any push toward $95,000 requiring clearer macro support. From a liquidity perspective, the absence of fresh capital is becoming more visible. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $19.6 million, extending a multi-week trend that has seen more than $140 million leave the products this week alone. Last week’s outflows were even steeper, exceeding $1.3 billion. While spot Ethereum ETFs saw $28.1 million in inflows, the amounts were not large enough to offset broader market pressure.
Geopolitical risk adds a new layer of uncertainty
Beyond monetary policy, geopolitics re-entered the crypto narrative. Former US President Donald Trump warned of potential military action against Iran if diplomatic talks fail, following the arrival of US naval forces in the Middle East. Markets are sensitive to any escalation that could disrupt global trade routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for energy supplies.
A serious conflict in the region could push oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and complicating the Fed’s path to rate cuts. For crypto, that scenario cuts both ways. In the short term, higher yields and risk aversion would likely pressure prices. Over the medium term, persistent inflation and currency debasement fears could revive Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge. For now, traders are focused on the immediate risk-off impulse.
Market structure, sentiment, and why this may be a reset
Despite the sell-off, several indicators suggest the market is undergoing a controlled reset rather than a disorderly unwind. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index ticked up slightly to 38 from 34, remaining in the “fear” zone but showing a modest improvement in sentiment. That aligns with steady, not spiking, volumes and relatively orderly price action.
Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, said the latest FOMC outcome was always more likely to reinforce consolidation than trigger a decisive move. Markets, he argued, are in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer signals on fiscal policy, Fed independence, and the timing of any eventual pivot. Similarly, Nic Roberts-Huntley of Blueprint Finance noted that today’s market structure is healthier than during leverage-heavy peaks seen above $125,000, with less forced selling and more emphasis on fundamentals.
This view is supported by on-chain and flow data. While ETF demand has softened, long-term holders have not shown signs of mass distribution. At the same time, institutional activity continues in targeted strategies, such as Sygnum’s 750 BTC raise for its Starboard BTC Alpha Fund, indicating selective confidence rather than broad withdrawal.
Bitcoin technical outlook: key levels to watch next
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has pulled back from its recent $98,000 high and slipped below both the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, a short-term bearish signal. Chart patterns show the formation of a bearish flag, often associated with continuation moves lower if support fails. The Relative Strength Index has dropped below 50, reflecting weakening momentum.
Immediate support sits near $86,000. A clean break below that level could expose $85,300, followed by the $83,000–$84,000 zone. More aggressive downside scenarios point toward the November low near $80,400. On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $90,000 and then $95,000 to reassert control and reopen the path toward six-figure prices.
Ethereum faces a similar setup. Having failed to hold $3,000, the next supports lie near $2,890, $2,790, and $2,650. A recovery back above $3,000 would ease pressure, but momentum indicators suggest consolidation may persist.
FAQs:
Why is Bitcoin down today?
Bitcoin is facing a “double-whammy” of a hawkish Federal Reserve and surging geopolitical risk. The Fed kept interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% on January 28, but Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts are unlikely until late 2026. Simultaneously, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have pushed investors into “risk-off” mode, favoring gold over digital assets.
What are the key support levels for BTC/USD now?
With Bitcoin slipping below the psychological $90,000 mark, the immediate focus is on the $84,200 support level. Technical analysts at DailyForex and MEXC warn that a daily close below this floor could trigger a deeper “bearish flag” breakdown. The next major “must-hold” zone sits at $80,400 (November’s low).
Are institutional investors selling Bitcoin?
Yes. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $19.64 million on January 28, marking a continued cooling of institutional demand. While some firms like MicroStrategy continue to buy, the overall market is leaning on long-term “spot holder conviction” rather than fresh ETF-driven inflows, which have remained stagnant for eight trading sessions.
Is the “Crypto Winter” returning in 2026?
Not necessarily, but the market is in a “necessary reset.” Technical indicators like the 21-week EMA crossing below the 50-week EMA suggest a mid-term bearish trend similar to 2022. However, analysts believe this consolidation allows for a reset of “speculative froth,” potentially setting the stage for a rally once macro clarity or the “debasement trade” returns later this year.