Bitcoin remains technically weak but stabilizing after its sharp pullback from recent highs. Price continues to trade below the 200-day SMA, confirming a downtrend, while forming a Channel Down pattern on the daily chart. This structure often resolves with a bullish breakout, but confirmation is still lacking.
The key level to watch is $94,000, where horizontal resistance aligns with the channel’s upper trendline. A clean breakout above this zone would likely open a move toward $100,000. On the downside, support sits at $88,000, followed by $82,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) – Technical analysis chart
Momentum indicators signal caution. RSI (~44) is neutral, suggesting neither oversold nor overbought conditions. MACD remains positive but is rolling over, with declining histogram bars pointing to weakening upside momentum. In short, Bitcoin is consolidating, not yet reversing.
Macro conditions remain the dominant driver as risk assets are highly sensitive to U.S. monetary policy expectations, and 2026 is shaping up to be pivotal. President Trump has indicated he intends to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026.
The most discussed candidates include Kevin Hassett (Trump’s chief economic adviser), Christopher Waller (current Fed Governor), and Kevin Warsh (former Fed Governor).
Hassett is viewed as strongly dovish, openly favoring rate cuts. Waller has recently broke from the majority to advocate for monetary easing, while Warsh, who is famous for being historically hawkish, has shifted toward cuts under Trump’s policy stance. Markets are seeing Hassett and Warch as the two top frontrunners in the race, with Hassett being the most likely winner. The announcement of the new Fed can come in the coming weeks.
A dovish Fed Chair would likely mean earlier rate cuts, looser liquidity, and a weaker dollar, all historically supportive for Bitcoin and broader risk assets.
If this narrative solidifies in 2026, Bitcoin’s current consolidation could prove to be a base rather than a top.