Bitcoin has kicked off the fourth quarter of 2025 with a strong rally, surging more than 10% over the past week — from around $109,000 on September 27 to over $122,000 today.
But Bitcoin could surge to fresh all-time highs if the U.S. government shutdown continues, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin’s historically positive correlation with U.S. Treasury term premiums, suggesting the cryptocurrency may benefit from prolonged fiscal uncertainty.
Kendrick noted that during prolonged market stress — conditions that often favor digitally scarce assets — Bitcoin has historically shown remarkable resilience. In this case, the prolonged stress comes from the U.S. government’s extended shutdown.
Standard Chartered’s forecast now targets Bitcoin at $135,000 in the near term, with a year-end projection of $200,000, signaling strong confidence in the token’s upside potential.
Currently, bitcoin trades around $122,200, just shy of its August all-time high of $124,480.
Bitcoin poised for a rally
The potential for an extended U.S. government shutdown adds another layer of market uncertainty, often influencing both equities and fixed-income instruments.
For bitcoin, these conditions may serve as a catalyst, reinforcing its role as a hedge against traditional market volatility.
Bitcoin has traded sideways in recent months, but key liquidity indicators suggest a breakout may be near. Global M2 growth, stablecoin supply trends, and gold’s rally — which Bitcoin has closely tracked with a 40-day lag — all point upward.
JPMorgan analysts also see Bitcoin as undervalued relative to gold, estimating a theoretical upside to $165,000 if the “debasement trade” — investing in assets that hedge fiat currency risk — continues.
With September closing roughly 5% higher at $114,000, historical patterns suggest a strong potential for outsized gains in Q4, supported by growing retail and institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and custody solutions.
Data shows that in years such as 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, positive September closes were followed by fourth-quarter rallies averaging more than 50%.