In a bull case, a break and daily close above $116,000 with follow-through volume would put $120,000–$124,000 back in play. Strong, sustained net ETF inflows, coupled with benign macro data and constructive legislative headlines, could power a retest and potential extension beyond prior peaks. Several mid-year reports already tied sharp advances to renewed inflows and corporate accumulation narratives.
In the base case, continued range trading between $102,000 and $116,000 is likely, as investors await clearer macro signals and as ETF flow patterns oscillate week to week. This would allow moving averages and momentum indicators to catch up to the price and reset after the summer surge.
In a bear case, a decisive daily close below $102,000 could invite a deeper correction toward prior high-$90,000 support. Catalysts might include outsized ETF outflows, sharp macro shocks (for example, an economic slowdown or aggressive tightening surprise), or adverse regulatory surprises in key jurisdictions. Episodes like August’s softening showed how quickly sentiment can turn during crowded trades.