Bitcoin and crypto prices have swung wildly this week as traders gear up for what could be a game-changing end to the year.
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The bitcoin price came within touching distance of its all-time high of $123,000 per bitcoin but has fallen back despite U.S. president Donald Trump dropping a $12.2 trillion crypto bombshell.
Now, as JPMorgan flips on the Federal Reserve, traders are braced for the latest U.S. inflation data that could unleash enthusiasm for risk assets if price pressures are seen to be easing.
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Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has warned interest rates won’t come down until he’s convinced inflation has eased—keeping a lid on the bitcoin price, crypto and other risk assets.
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“U.S. inflation figures will be closely watched later as the market tries to get a read into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision next month on interest rates,” AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said in emailed comments.
The market is currently betting the Fed will cut interest rates in September after Fed chair Jerome Powell put the rate cutting cycle on hold due to fears U.S. president Donald Trump’s international trade tariffs could drive up inflation.
The consumer price index (CPI) report for July is due to be released at 8:30am ET and is expected to show prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in July, up from a 2.7% rise in June, according to data compliled by Bloomberg.
“Bitcoin closed Monday near its opening levels, losing nearly 3% of its 3.5% jump at the start of the day to $119,000,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro chief market analyst, said in an emailed note.
“There are fears of a repeat of the situation we saw in July, when a promising breakthrough turned into an exhausting sideways movement and rattled nerves with a decline in the first days of August. We attribute the bitcoin pullback to the cautious mood of major players ahead of U.S. inflation data released later on Tuesday.”
Some traders are settling in for a long wait before the market makes another major move.
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The bitcoin price has surged this year, with some predicting it could rocket higher if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September.
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“The current outlook for bitcoin and the broader crypto market over the next six to eight weeks is one of range-bound trading, with limited upside expected in the short term,” Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst, investor, and founder of Coin Bureau, said via email.
“This is largely due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, including questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, who the next Fed chair might be, and unresolved global trade issues such as pending tariff agreements and international deals involving countries like India, China, and members of the EU. However, if there is a rate cut in September and greater clarity on trade policy, the conditions could quickly shift in favor of a crypto rally, potentially pushing bitcoin back above its all-time high.”