Bitcoin has dropped sharply from its all-time highs, losing 20% of its value in a month an plunging it into bear market territory—with the decline raising fears of a nightmare scenario for the bitcoin price.
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The bitcoin price, having topped $126,000 per bitcoin in October, plummeted under $100,000 this week before bouncing back slightly (in part thanks to U.S. president Donald Trump issuing a stark China warning) though the combined crypto market remains $900 billion lower than its early October level 0f $4.3 trillion.
Now, as traders brace for the stock market to follow bitcoin lower, the bitcoin price has dropped back under $100,000—causing even the most steadfast bitcoin bulls to question their conviction.
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The bitcoin price plummeted under $100,000 per bitcoin, sending shockwaves through the bitcoin and crypto market.
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The gloomy state of the bitcoin market was laid bare by researchers with analytics company CryptoQuant, who told The Block they can see bitcoin crashing to $72,000 before the end of the year.
“The 365-day moving average has acted as the ultimate support level so far this bull cycle, and was one of the last signals triggered as the bear market began in December 2021–January 2022,” CryptoQuant researchers wrote in a report this week. “A failure to cross back above the 365-day moving average quickly could trigger a much larger correction in bitcoin’s price.”
The bitcoin price “flash crash” on October 10—sending the bitcoin price more than 10% lower in just a matter of hours—sapped confidence among many of the recent bitcoin buyers, specifically the likes of Michael Saylor’s Strategy and bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), led by BlackRock.
“Slowing bitcoin flows are a major factor influencing the market’s current direction. Demand from digital asset treasuries like Strategy, that supported crypto prices through the summer, is decelerating,” Thomas Perfumo, Kraken global economist, said in emailed comments.
“Crypto ETFs have also experienced significant outflows, despite skewing bullish during prior months of choppy price action. While the market was stabilizing after the October 10 liquidation event, this latest ‘reset’ event certainly reduced short-term risk tolerance further.”
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The bitcoin price has dropped sharply over the last month, leading to many betting the bitcoin price will fail to perform as they expected.
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Bitcoin bulls have meanwhile trimmed their bitcoin price targets this week as bitcoin plummets under $100,000 and so far shows few signs of recovery.
Stablecoins “scaling here much faster than anyone would have expected,” was named by Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood as her reason for reducing her “$1.5 million by 2030″ bitcoin price target by $300,000. “Stablecoins are usurping part of the role that we thought bitcoin would play [in emerging markets],” Wood told CNBC.
Earlier this week, analysts with Michael Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital slashed their end-of-year target for bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000.
Bitcoin has entered a new “maturity era,” in which “institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility will dominate,” they wrote.