Key Points
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Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur roughly every four years, provide investors with a guide of what could happen next.
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Based on historical trends, Bitcoin’s price should be much higher by spring of 2028, although the gain likely won’t be as large as previous cycles.
Since hitting an all-time record price of around $126,000 in October last year, it has been a disappointing run for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency currently trades 42% below that peak (as of April 8), as it keeps losing steam.
Here’s what the next two years could realistically look like.
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Buying Bitcoin on smartphone crypto app.
Image source: Getty Images.
Bitcoin undergoes what’s called a halving roughly every four years, a critical event that cuts new supply creation in half. It’s precisely what enforces Bitcoin’s hard cap of 21 million units. And it supports the cryptocurrency’s four-year price cycles.
The next halving is set to occur in March 2028. The last one happened in April 2024. This puts us almost exactly in the middle of the two right now.
Based on past trends, the digital asset’s price at a halving has always been higher than where it traded at the previous halving. But the gains have decreased as Bitcoin has become more valuable over time. From July 2016 to May 2020, the price was up 1,290%. Then from May 2020 to April 2024, it climbed 661%.
It’s impossible to predict what Bitcoin’s price will be two years from now. However, I believe there’s a high probability that investors who buy the cryptocurrency today will register a positive gain between now and the spring of 2028. As shown, history provides a clear outline for what could happen. As always, know your own risk tolerance when considering investing in crypto.
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Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.