[NEW YORK] Bitcoin has reclaimed the US$90,000 level, but the foundations beneath the rally remain fragile as traders stay on the defensive.
There have been few meaningful signs of sustained optimism across crypto derivatives markets despite Bitcoin’s rebound this week. Even as fresh inflows returned to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week, the broader market structure has yet to follow. For now, Bitcoin’s price uptick looks more like a reprieve than a resurgence.
Both Bitcoin perpetual and dated futures, where much of the underlying market sentiment in crypto is revealed, show most bets still clustered in short-term contracts. Demand for longer-dated futures remains muted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, long viewed as a barometer for institutional interest.
“While morale is showing signs of improvement, sentiment remains largely cautious and hands-off, despite the recent uptrend,” Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, wrote in a report published on Tuesday (Jan 6).
Spot volumes, volatility and derivatives leverage all remain near pre-December lows, and 86 per cent of open interest is concentrated in the front-month expiry, Lunde noted. Funding rates for perpetual contracts – another key gauge of risk appetite – have also been subdued, indicating limited bullish positioning, according to the report.
Still, the persistent Bitcoin selling seen in the final weeks of 2025 reversed in the first few trading days of this year, lifting prices. Inflows on Jan 5 marked the strongest single-day net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs since Oct 7 and the 10th-largest notional daily inflow since Jan 1, 2025.
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Further gains in Bitcoin could spur activity in CME futures contracts, as the so-called basis trade, which seeks to profit from the difference between spot prices and futures, becomes attractive again.
Bitcoin’s relative stagnation compared with gold and equities has fuelled questions about the value of cryptocurrency as an asset class. “Declining Bitcoin volatility, particularly versus gold and beta, suggests the best performance days for cryptoassets are past us,” Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone said on Monday. BLOOMBERG
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