Projections of two further Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter, and expectations of a resilient US economy, could boost demand for risk assets. By contrast, stagflation fears and a less dovish Fed rate path may weigh on sentiment.
Historically, BTC has benefited from Fed rate cuts. Crypto commentator Joe Consorti commented:
“Last year, following the Fed’s first 25-bps rate cut, BTC rose 14% throughout October. It rose 54.17% from October 1st through December 31st as further easing took place. Q4 is shaping up nicely for the orange coin.”
Consorti also suggested a potential surge to $150,000, stating:
“Bitcoin has historically risen 29.23% in October. That would imply a price of $150,000. Time will tell.”
ETH Faces Profit-Taking after Break Above $4,750
While Bitcoin held above $115,000 on weekly spot ETF inflows, Ethereum (ETH) succumbed to profit-taking. ETH fell 1.01% on Saturday, September 13, partially reversing Friday’s 5.73% rally to close at $4,668. ETH remained exposed to profit-taking as BTC and several alt-coins triggered an investor rotation in search of stronger gains.
The US ETH-spot ETF market reported total weekly net inflows of $623.6 million in the week ending September 12. Spot ETFs rebounded from outflows of $766.3 million from the previous week. Spot ETF flows sent ETH to $4,766, its highest level since August 25.
Explore our ETF flow deep-dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.
Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook
Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:
- Legislative news: the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill.
- US economic data: US retail sales and Jobless Claims.
- Federal Reserve interest rate decision, economic projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
- US BTC-spot ETF flows.
BTC Price Scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario: Easing US stagflation risks, a dovish Fed rate cut, bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill, and ETF inflows. These factors could send BTC back toward its record high of $123,731.
- Bearish Scenario: Increasing US stagflation risks, a hawkish Fed rate cut, legislative setbacks, or ETF outflows could drag BTC toward $100,000.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC trades above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating bullish momentum
- Upside Target: A breakout above the September 12 high of $116,793 could enable the bulls to target the $120,000 level. A sustained move through $120,000 opens the door to testing the record high of $123,731.
- On the downside, $115,000 is the near-term support. $100,000 could potentially act as a key psychological floor.