Bitcoin’s (BTC) lack of short-term bullish drivers and worsening technical outlook has prompted one analyst to plan bids at lower price levels to capitalize on a potential market freakout.
“I will leave bids at $94,0000 and $82,000 in case of a freakout,” Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, said in a market update.
“If my view on reacceleration, fiscal dominance, and Fed-as-puppet-show is right, bitcoin will eventually benefit. But today it’s trading like a risky asset, not a store of value. And there is no coherent short-term bullish narrative.”
Donnelly explained that the craze around digital asset treasuries (DATs), or corporate adoption of BTC as a treasury asset, is fading, and the seasonal effects related to bitcoin’s halving event are turning bearish.
Historical data show that bitcoin’s bull markets typically peak 16 to 18 months after a halving event, followed by a year-long bear market. Since the last halving occurred in April 2024, this pattern suggests that the current bull run could be approaching its end, potentially giving way to an extended period of bearishness.
Some observers, however, have argued that the institutionalization of BTC through ETFs has altered the market, and halving cycles are no longer valid, as miner flows now account for less than 5% of the market volume.
Speaking of technical outlook, Donnelly noted bitcoin’s double top, a bearish reversal pattern.
“I guess bitcoin’s weekend dump after the “dovish” Jackson Hole speech from Powell was a red flag and now we have a double top in BTC with the first one on Crypto Week at the White House and the second on the ETH party hosted by Bitmine,” he said.
Last week, bitcoin fell below $111,982, confirming a double-top breakdown and signaling a shift from a bullish to bearish trend.
Since then, prices have bounced back to that level—which has now turned into resistance—in a classic breakdown and retest pattern. Markets often revisit critical breakdown points to gauge seller strength before potentially driving larger declines.
In other words, BTC is now at an inflection point. A clean break above the said level would weaken the bearish case. On the other hand, a turn lower would reinforce the bearish pattern, opening the door for a deeper slide.
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could prove decisive. A stronger-than-expected reading may undermine bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially pushing bitcoin lower. In anticipation of a bearish outcome, some traders have been buying undervalued BTC put options on the CME.
Read: Bitcoin Traders Brace for NFP Shock With Hedging Plays