Features writer
Olga Primakova
Features writer
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Elena Bozhkova
Features Lead
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin is retesting the $74,000 area, a level that previously marked the start of a strong six-month rally in 2024.
- Several analysts see the $60,000–$65,000 range as a realistic downside floor, representing a typical 50% correction for Bitcoin cycles.
- Macro pressure and geopolitics, including Trump’s tariffs and ETF outflows, continue to weigh on Bitcoin, reinforcing its role as a risk asset in the short term.
- Near-term conditions remain cautious. Analysts warn of false breakouts, fading rallies, and the need for patience until Bitcoin establishes a clearer trading range.
- A deeper drop below $60,000 would likely require a clear surge in panic selling, which some experts see as less likely given the behavior of long-term holders.
Bitcoin price has once again approached a key level around $74,000. This is where BTC began its recovery back in April last year. Since then, the market has not revisited this zone.
From that level, Bitcoin went on a strong run. The uptrend, with only shallow pullbacks, lasted roughly six months. It culminated in a new all-time high on Oct. 6, when BTC briefly touched $126,080. That peak now sits almost 40% above current prices.
But the context today looks very different.
On the one hand, $74,000 has history on its side. Last year, it acted as a clear bottom. Buyers stepped in aggressively, and the market turned higher. That memory still matters.
On the other hand, sentiment has changed since the October crypto sell-off. Buyers now look hesitant. Every attempt by Bitcoin to push out of its current range is quickly met with selling pressure. Rallies fade fast. In that light, it’s easy to understand investors who are using small rebounds to reduce losses or exit at breakeven.
In this Cryptonews report, we spoke with analysts about what February could bring for Bitcoin and why a move below $70,000 is increasingly part of the discussion.
Bitcoin Price Could See a 50% Correction, ‘Which Is Brutal but Normal’
In a conversation with Cryptonews, Tanisha Katara, a blockchain governance consultant and researcher working with Avail, Filecoin, and Polygon, said the market may be closer to a real bottom than many fear:
$60,000–$65,000 is a realistic floor, and that’s where real buyers historically show up. It represents roughly a 50% drawdown, which is brutal but normal for Bitcoin corrections.
At the same time, she dismissed scenarios calling for a much deeper drop. A move toward the $30,000–$35,000 range, Katara argued, “is a ridiculous and baseless prediction.”
Katara added that Bitcoin is currently behaving like a classic risk asset, with macro pressure playing a major role:
Trump’s tariffs triggered a risk-off move across global markets. Leverage was wiped out, followed by $1.6 billion in monthly ETF outflows. This combination created selling pressure for BTC and other crypto assets.
Bitcoin Price Awaits Its Next Move
Gavin Thomas, CEO and co-founder of TEN Protocol, told Cryptonews that he sees a similar support zone but emphasized what would be required for Bitcoin to break lower:
$60,000 is where most models see deeper support if Bitcoin drops through the psychological $70,000 floor. For Bitcoin to retreat past $60,000, putting it bluntly, there will need to be a strong upshift in panic selling.
Thomas argues that this may be harder than it sounds. Many long-term holders have already lived through multiple cycles. Instead of selling into fear, they are more likely to hold through volatility or accumulate at lower levels.
Looking ahead to the near term, he expects February to remain challenging.
Thomas said the next month is likely to be marked by caution across the crypto industry, with reduced spending and limited activity outside a small number of standout projects:
Over the next four weeks there will be continued cost-cutting across the crypto industry, very few to zero ICOs and only isolated pockets of innovation capturing people’s attention. One or two projects may take advantage of the vacuum of good news to execute prepared marketing campaigns, but generally this month will see a continued downtrend as geopolitical conditions continue to inject uncertainty.
While some experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s broader outlook and long-term performance, short-term expectations are notably more cautious.
Beyond macroeconomic data, geopolitics has become an increasingly important factor for Bitcoin price, often triggering sharp moves to the downside. In this environment, capital preservation matters.
False moves are likely. At times, the market may look ready to rally, only to reverse shortly after. For now, patience is key. The market needs time to cool off and establish a clear range before a more reliable trend can emerge.
February Crypto & Macro Calendar
February 4
- EUR — CPI (YoY), Jan
- USD — S&P Global Services PMI, Jan
- USD — JOLTS Job Openings, Dec
February 5
- USD — ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices, Jan
- USD — ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Jan
- USD — Initial Jobless Claims
February 10
- USD — Retail Sales (MoM), Dec
- USD — Core Retail Sales (MoM), Dec
February 11
- USD — CPI (MoM), Jan
- USD — CPI (YoY), Jan
- USD — Core CPI (MoM), Jan
February 12
- USD — Initial Jobless Claims
February 13
- USD — Existing Home Sales, Jan
February 20
- USD — S&P Global Services PMI, Feb
- USD — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Feb
Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.