The crypto market started November with the Fear and Greed Index at just 21 — its lowest level since April. Despite the sea of red, analysts have reasons to believe Bitcoin’s bull run could continue this month.
What are those reasons? Let’s take a closer look.
1. Whale Behavior Suggests Healthy Market Rotation The first reason lies in the behavior of Bitcoin “whales.”
Recent reports show that long-term holders have offloaded approximately 405,000 BTC over the past month, equivalent to more than $43 billion in realized value.
However, Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score chart reveals a broader picture. While large investors holding massive BTC positions continue to sell, other investor groups have maintained their pace of accumulation. This balance has helped Bitcoin stay stable above the $100,000 level.
Community discussions often lean negative, focusing on the whales’ sell-offs while overlooking the absorption power of other investors. Many analysts see this as a healthy transfer of coins from old holders to new ones — a normal part of a growth cycle.
“When the distribution dries up, we likely run to new highs,” analyst Bitcoin Munger predicted.
2. Supportive Macroeconomic Developments The second reason comes from positive macroeconomic developments.
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates in December. Its quantitative tightening (QT) program will also end on December 1, potentially shifting toward quantitative easing (QE) through Treasury bond purchases.
At the same time, the US-China trade agreement has been signed, and US equities continue to hit record highs. These factors contribute to a liquidity-rich environment, pushing risk assets higher.
Analyst Ash Crypto believes patience is the key amid these conditions.
“Crypto prices are being manipulated and suppressed. I don’t buy the idea that all the data is good, everything in the world is pumping with liquidity but crypto is done. So I’m holding and waiting patiently. Definitely not easy, but we all knew the risks before we started investing into internet money,” Ash Crypto said.
3. Strong Technical Signal from the 50-Week Moving Average
The third reason is a bullish technical indicator. Bitcoin continues to trade above its 50-week moving average (50-week MA) — a key support level.
On the weekly chart, the 50 MA has acted as support three times since BTC broke above it in 2023. Each time, prices dipped briefly below with wick candles but always closed above this line.
Bitcoin Price with 50-week moving average. Source: The Wolf Of All Streets
If Bitcoin closes this week above the 50 MA again, it would confirm that bulls remain in control, paving the way for recovery and a continued bull run.
“This may be the true bull/bear line for many technical analysts,” The Wolf Of All Streets said.
Despite these bullish factors, Bitcoin’s price has declined in early November, and pessimism still dominates sentiment. Many investors are out of capital or have exited the market.
This situation leaves two possibilities, according to experts: Either investors are facing one of the most attractive entry opportunities ever, or — as some fear — the market is already dead.