“Globally, the AI trade is becoming more vulnerable to valuation pressures and the rising cost of capital, even as underlying demand for AI infrastructure remains strong. I do not see this necessarily as the end of the AI cycle, but rather a phase of sharper differentiation between companies that can justify their valuations through earnings and those that cannot. India’s market has a different composition, with its investment case resting more on domestic consumption, financial services, infrastructure, manufacturing and the broader formalisation of the economy. This is where our reverse AI trade perspective becomes relevant: India may not capture the same upside during a technology-led global rally, but its medium-term opportunity is not dependent on that trade alone. With oil prices elevated (Houthis claim an attack yesterday on Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery) and global interest rates a potential headwind, prudence remains essential. The Federal Reserve’s policy signals and the trajectory of energy-driven inflation will be important global triggers. Ultimately, my constructive view on Indian equities rests on earnings recovery, economic resilience and the ability of businesses to deliver sustainable growth- not on the assumption that foreign investors will return simply because markets have corrected,” Sanchita Mukherji said.
