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Good work! 🐾
Sunday, September 20th, our market strategy meeting for next week!
Target period: September 21st (Mon) – September 25th (Fri)
* The Tokyo Stock Market will be closed from the 21st (Mon) to the 23rd (Wed), and trading will resume on the 24th (Thu). Since the US market will be trading during this time, there is a possibility that the movements of overseas markets will be collectively priced in after the long weekend.
* The market reference date is September 18th (Fri). Economic indicator times are in Japan Standard Time, and US news dates are in US time.
* AI forecast ranges may change depending on the movements of US stocks, interest rates, and exchange rates during the market closure.
🔍 Next Week’s Checkpoints
📅 Key Events for Next Week
* 🇯🇵 21st (Mon) – 23rd (Wed), Tokyo Stock Market closed
* 🇯🇵 24th (Thu), Tokyo Stock Market resumes trading
* 🇺🇸 24th 21:30, Initial Jobless Claims
* 🇺🇸 24th 23:00, New Home Sales
* 🇺🇸 25th 21:30, Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary)
* 🇺🇸 25th, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Final)
🔥 Themes to Watch Next Week
* Market movements after the Japanese long weekend
* US-Japan interest rates and the Dollar-Yen
* AI and Semiconductors
* Data Centers and Power Equipment
👀 5 Stocks to Monitor Next Week
* Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
* Advantest
* Kioxia Holdings
* Furukawa Electric
* DataSection
🤖 AI Forecast for Next Week
The Japanese market will be closed for the first half of the week, but US stocks and exchange rates will continue to move. When considering the direction of Japanese stocks, three factors seem particularly important: US tech stocks, US long-term interest rates, and the Dollar-Yen.
After trading resumes on the 24th, I want to see if buying will concentrate only on semiconductor stocks or if funds will spread to banks, power equipment, and other sectors. It looks like a week where we will compare ‘forecasts during the long weekend’ with ‘sectors actually bought after resumption’.
1. Next Week’s Nikkei & Forex AI Forecast 🇯🇵
📊 Nikkei Stock Average
AI Forecast Range: 63,500 yen – 66,500 yen
The Nikkei closed at 65,018.95 yen on September 18th. The first trading day of next week is the 24th.
If US tech stocks remain firm and US interest rates stabilize during the closure, we may see buying centered on semiconductor-related stocks, maintaining the 65,000 yen level. On the other hand, if US stocks fall, there is a possibility that selling will concentrate at the opening after the long weekend.
I will focus on whether the buying continues after the opening, rather than deciding the direction for the entire week based solely on Thursday’s opening.
📊 TOPIX
AI Forecast Range: 3,900pt – 4,200pt
While the Nikkei is easily swayed by semiconductor stocks, I want to see if buying spreads to banks, power equipment, and domestic demand stocks in the TOPIX.
If bank stocks remain firm and the number of rising stocks increases beyond semiconductors, it should support the overall market. Conversely, if only a few large-cap stocks rise, I want to distinguish between the strength of the index and the strength of the market as a whole.
💱 Dollar-Yen
AI Forecast Range: 1 Dollar = 155 yen – 160 yen
Following last week’s monetary policy in Japan and the US, interest rate outlooks for both countries are likely to remain the driving force for exchange rates next week.
A trend toward a weaker yen could support export-related stocks. However, if the yen exchange rate moves significantly in a short period, it will lead to market caution as well as expectations for corporate earnings. When looking at Japanese stocks on the 24th, I want to check not only the direction of yen depreciation/appreciation but also the speed of change.
2. Next Week’s Key News for the Japanese Market 🇯🇵
🇯🇵① Tokyo market resumes on the 24th after a 3-day holiday📈
The Tokyo Stock Market will be closed for Respect for the Aged Day on September 21st, a holiday on the 22nd, and the Autumnal Equinox on the 23rd. The 24th is the most important day of next week, as Japanese stocks will collectively reflect changes in US stocks, interest rates, and exchange rates during the closure.
【Comment👀】
If US semiconductor stocks are strong, attention will likely focus on Advantest and Kioxia HD, and if interest rates move, on bank stocks. I want to confirm whether the direction of stocks that move significantly at the opening continues with volume.
Related sectors: Semiconductors, Banks, Export-related, Power equipment
🇯🇵② Checking the assessment of bank stocks and the yen rate after the BOJ meeting🏦
The focus is on how the Japanese market will assess the movements in interest rates and exchange rates following last week’s Bank of Japan meeting after the long weekend. The key will be whether buying in bank stocks continues and whether the strength of export-related stocks changes in response to shifts in the yen rate.
【Comment👀】
Even if bank stocks like Mitsubishi UFJ continue to be bought, I want to be careful about profit-taking following the gains up to last week. If I look at whether the entire TOPIX is firm, not just bank stocks, it should be easier to grasp the spread of funds.
Related sectors: Banks, Insurance, Real Estate, Export-related
Related stocks: Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui FG, Mizuho FG
🇯🇵③ AI data center-related stocks: From ‘Expectation’ to ‘Progress Confirmation’⚡
AI data centers are a theme involving not only semiconductors but also optical communications, power equipment, and cooling. Next week, in addition to overseas AI investment news, I will focus on whether there are disclosures from domestic related companies that can specifically confirm orders, payments, and facility operations.
【Comment👀】
I want to monitor DataSection for individual business progress and Furukawa Electric for the flow of funds into optical communications and power infrastructure from different perspectives. If stock prices move based on expectations, I will separate the disclosed facts from future prospects.
Related sectors: AI Data Centers, Optical Communications, Power Equipment
Stocks to monitor: DataSection, Furukawa Electric, Hitachi
3. Next Week’s Key News for the US Market 🇺🇸
🇺🇸① NVIDIA-backed AI infrastructure company’s US IPO filing makes headlines🤖
On September 18th, it was reported that Nscale, a UK-based AI cloud company supported by NVIDIA, had filed for an initial public offering in the US. While investment in AI computing power and data centers continues, the costs and fundraising associated with rapid business expansion are also attracting attention. This is not news that it has been decided to list next week.
【Comment👀】
This will likely serve as a gauge for investment appetite in AI infrastructure. For Japanese stocks, I want to see if interest continues in semiconductor inspection equipment maker Advantest, and optical communication companies like Furukawa Electric and Fujikura. However, an increase in investment does not immediately mean an increase in profits for each company.
🇺🇸② Focus on the reaction of US interest rates and large-cap tech stocks after the Fed rate hike🏦
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its policy rate target by 0.25 points to 3.75-4.00% on September 16th. While no new interest rate decisions are scheduled for next week, I am focusing on the movements of US long-term interest rates and large-cap tech stocks following the rate hike.
【Comment👀】
If US interest rates rise and semiconductor/AI-related stocks are sold, it could affect Japan’s Advantest and Tokyo Electron. Conversely, if US interest rates stabilize, I want to see if it leads to buying back into Japanese stocks after the long weekend.
🇺🇸③ Checking US corporate capital investment through durable goods orders📊
The preliminary US durable goods orders for August are scheduled to be announced on the 25th at 21:30. This is an indicator that attracts attention when considering corporate capital investment appetite. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is also scheduled for the same day.
【Comment👀】
If the figures are taken as positive for capital investment, it could lead to interest in Japanese semiconductor manufacturing equipment and industrial machinery. Since the announcement is after the Japanese market closes on the 25th, I will check the impact on Japanese stocks from the following week, the 28th (Mon). I don’t want to judge the increase or decrease in AI-related investment based solely on this indicator, but rather look at the breakdown and the reaction of the US market.
4. AI’s Themes to Watch Next Week 🚀
💾① AI & Semiconductors
How US semiconductor stocks move while Japan is on holiday will be a key clue for the 24th. We will also check if growth stocks are being sold off due to rising US interest rates.
Related stocks: Advantest, Kioxia HD, Tokyo Electron
🏦② Banks & Interest Rates
Interest rate outlooks following last week’s Japanese and US monetary policies will continue to be a factor. We will watch to see if capital inflows into bank stocks continue after the long weekend.
Related stocks: Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui FG, Mizuho FG
🌐③ Data Centers & Optical Communications
While capital investment for AI continues, the burden of investment costs is also being noted. We want to see if related stocks move in unison, or if capital flows toward companies with confirmed orders and earnings.
Related stocks: Furukawa Electric, Fujikura, Sumitomo Electric Industries
⚡④ Data Center Power Equipment
Power supply and capital investment to run AI servers are important medium- to long-term themes. We will watch to see if buying spreads from semiconductor stocks to peripheral infrastructure.
Related stocks: Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, Fuji Electric
5. Key Events for Next Week📅
September 21 (Mon)
* 🇯🇵 Tokyo Stock Market closed: Respect for the Aged Day
* 🇺🇸 Check US market stock prices, long-term interest rates, and USD/JPY movements
September 22 (Tue)
* 🇯🇵 Tokyo Stock Market closed: Holiday per the Public Holidays Act
* 🇺🇸 Continue to check US market movements
September 23 (Wed)
* 🇯🇵 Tokyo Stock Market closed: Autumnal Equinox Day
* 🇯🇵 Check changes in US stocks and exchange rates ahead of the 24th’s market reopening
September 24 (Thu)
* 🇯🇵 Tokyo Stock Market resumes trading
* 🇺🇸 21:30, Initial Jobless Claims
* 🇺🇸 23:00, New Home Sales
September 25 (Fri)
* 🇺🇸 21:30, August Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary)
* 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Final)
6. Next Week’s Scenario Asked to AI🤖
[Bullish Scenario📈]
US high-tech stocks remain firm while Japan is on holiday, and US long-term interest rates and USD/JPY do not fluctuate significantly.
In the Japanese market on the 24th, buying enters semiconductor stocks, and capital spreads to banks, optical communications, and power equipment. If a wide range of stocks rise, the Nikkei 225 may maintain the 65,000 yen level and test higher ground.
[Bearish Scenario📉]
US interest rates rise during the holiday, and US high-tech stocks fall. If selling concentrates on Japanese semiconductor stocks on the 24th and buying does not continue after the opening, the Nikkei 225’s price movement is likely to become unstable.
Regarding AI data centers, we also want to pay attention to whether expectations for investment expansion or concerns about capital burdens are more strongly felt.
7. 5 Selected Stocks to Watch Next Week👀
👀① Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306)
A stock we want to check to see if buying in bank stocks continues after last week’s BOJ meeting. In addition to interest rate movements, we will also focus on profit-taking sales following last week’s gains.
👀② Advantest (6857)
A representative stock to see how US semiconductor stocks during the long weekend are reflected in Japanese stocks on the 24th. We will check not only the stock price but also whether buying spreads to the entire semiconductor sector.
👀③ Kioxia Holdings (285A)
We are watching to see if AI-related capital flows not only to GPU-related areas but also to memory-related areas. Since price movements may become large, we want to be conscious of trading volume and the previous week’s stock price level.
👀④ Furukawa Electric (5801)
We will monitor this from both the optical communication and power infrastructure sides for data centers. The point is whether buying spreads to equipment-related stocks other than semiconductors following US AI investment news.
👀⑤ DataSection (3905)
A stock for which we want to confirm new official disclosures and concrete progress regarding the AI data center business. There is a possibility that new material will emerge during the long weekend, but after trading resumes on the 24th, we want to calmly confirm the published facts and trading volume.
8. A Word for Next Week Asked to AI💬
“A week to gather material during the 3-day holiday and confirm the market’s answer on the 24th”
Next week, there will be consecutive days when Japanese stocks cannot be traded, but overseas markets are moving. During the holiday, watch US stocks, interest rates, and USD/JPY, and on the 24th, I want to check the difference between the stocks I expected and the stocks that were actually bought.
Even if price movements become large, don’t panic, and let’s watch while confirming “what the material was” for each monitored stock!
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the buying or selling of specific stocks.