UK residential property transactions halted a two-month decline in June 2026, according to data released by HMRC, though the traditionally strong spring period showed limited momentum.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for residential transactions in June reached 98,700, representing a marginal increase of less than 1% compared to May’s figure of 98,460. The June total was 2% higher than the same month in 2025, when the market was normalising following the conclusion of a stamp duty holiday.
HMRC noted that “the year-on-year increase in transactions in June 2026 likely represent an increase in underlying property market activity.” The non-seasonally adjusted estimate stood at 103,050 transactions, 6% higher than June 2025 and 11% higher than May 2026.
Market headwinds persist
Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, observed that “the seasonal spring bounce is falling a little flat this year. Transaction numbers went sideways in June at a time of year when you would expect them to be increasing.”
Bill attributed the subdued activity to higher mortgage rates resulting from the Middle East conflict and uncertainty surrounding property taxation. “Andy Burnham ruled out a land value tax this week but activity and prices will be kept in check this summer as buyers and sellers speculate which other taxes will rise in the Budget,” he said.
The stabilisation follows recent data showing slower house price growth, with broader concerns about HMRC’s expanding oversight of property taxation adding to market caution.
Industry perspectives divided
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, characterised the increase as “an encouraging sign that buyers and sellers continue to have the confidence to move despite ongoing economic and political change.” However, he warned that “market confidence will depend on greater policy certainty,” noting that discussions around potential reforms to stamp duty and council tax have created uncertainty for consumers.
Jason Tebb, President at OnTheMarket, emphasised market resilience, stating that “buyers and sellers are adapting to changing circumstances and continuing to proceed with their transactions, rather than stepping back and delaying decisions.” He cited the Bank of England’s decision to hold the base rate at five consecutive meetings as providing a “calming effect.”
Mark Harris, CEO at SPF Private Clients, noted that buyers “took advantage of mortgage rates which were on a gradual downwards trend” in June, though he cautioned that “some mortgage lenders have raised rates, with pricing higher than a month ago.”
Delayed impact considerations
Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, highlighted that completed sales data reflects “buying and selling decision-making from perhaps three or four months ago.” He noted that concerns about the Iran conflict’s impact on mortgage rates and cost of living pressures were “arguably even more relevant” during that earlier period than currently.
Iain McKenzie, CEO at The Guild of Property Professionals, acknowledged that “political uncertainty, higher mortgage rates and global events have undoubtedly caused some buyers to pause,” but maintained that market activity remains measured rather than halted.
The June figures suggest the UK property market is maintaining baseline activity levels despite multiple headwinds, though the absence of typical seasonal growth indicates continued caution among market participants ahead of anticipated policy changes.