Stock Market Today Live, Aug 3: Sensex, Nifty set for strong open as Gift Nifty signals 150-point rally; Crude slumps to $81.5 on Iran deal optimism

US Market Outlook: Mixed picture

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices snapped their fall last week. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 were up 1 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite index rose about 1.6 per cent. Broadly, the benchmark indices are giving a mixed picture. The Dow Jones has to get a strong follow-through rise from here. The S&P 500 seems to be stuck in a sideways range. The Nasdaq Composite index, on the other hand, is witnessing a corrective bounce within its downtrend.

Overall, the US markets are not looking very bullish at the moment. So, we continue to maintain our cautious stance. Read more here

Expert Take | Market & FII flows | Vinit Bolinjkar – Head of Research- Ventura

Indian equity markets wrapped up the week on a firm footing, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing at 24,366. Domestic sentiment has been bolstered by a decisive turnaround in foreign capital flows. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) registered aggressive net inflows totaling ₹5,672.48 crores over consecutive recent sessions, highlighted by a buying surge of ₹3,127.29 crores. While the USD/INR hovering near 95.42 and Brent crude consolidating around $87/bbl demand cautious vigilance on the imported inflation front, strong domestic institutional buAering and robust bluechip buying have established a solid market floor. The near-term outlook remains constructively bullish as investors price in healthy earnings momentum and strengthening macro-liquidity.

Market Outlook | Improving Positioning Supports a Potential Range Shift: Kruti Shah, Quant Analyst, Equirus Securities

NIFTY enters the coming week with improved momentum and a more constructive underlying setup. FII index shorts have begun to unwind, cash-market flows have turned supportive, while the volatility index slipping below 13 provides a favourable backdrop for the recovery. With NIFTY approaching the 24,500 zone, the gradual migration of put writing towards higher strikes (24,000–24,200) suggests the possibility of an upward shift in the trading range.

The new series has commenced with relatively low index OI, leaving scope for fresh position accumulation as conviction improves, while market-wide positioning remains broadly balanced, indicating that existing long exposure remains largely intact. Sector rotation remains constructive, led by IT and metals, while banking continues to undergo repositioning, with financials attracting the strongest traction.

Globally, softer DXY and crude remain supportive of risk appetite, although elevated US yields could keep volatility contained. Overall, the bias remains constructive, but broader participation and fresh long accumulation will be critical for a sustained move beyond 24,500 when Midcap and small cap Index continue to climb higher.

Monthly Outlook report by Bajaj Broking Prive Research

• India’s economy shows resilience in FY27: IIP grew 5.7% YoY in Q1FY27, while ISP rose 15.3% YoY during the first two months of the quarter.
• Inflation rises above RBI target: CPI inflation increased to 4.38% in June 2026, crossing the RBI’s 4% target amid higher global commodity prices due to the West Asia conflict.
• Trade deficit widens: Merchandise trade deficit hit a five-month high of $30.43 billion in June 2026, while the overall trade deficit (merchandise + services) reached an 8-month high of $15.32 billion.
• Imports outpace exports: Total imports rose 26.8% YoY in June, compared with 9.5% YoY growth in exports. For Q1FY27, cumulative trade deficit nearly doubled to US$33.6 billion, with exports up 11.6% YoY and imports rising 17.3% YoY.
• Monsoon concerns ease: Rainfall deficit narrowed to around 14% by end-July 2026, reducing risks of food inflation linked to a weak monsoon.
• Finance Ministry optimistic: The July Monthly Economic Review said domestic demand is expected to remain resilient, though commodity price volatility remains a key risk.
• Q1 earnings reflect steady demand: Corporate results indicate steady top-line growth, but margins remain under pressure from elevated input costs and geopolitical uncertainties.
• Companies build inventories: Businesses accelerated inventory build-up in July to meet strong consumer demand and guard against higher commodity prices and supply chain disruptions.
• Top-performing sectors:Banking & Financial Services, select IT & ITES, capital goods and infrastructure have delivered better-than-expected Q1FY27 results.
• Banking & Financial Services: Asset quality remained stable, with loan and credit growth of 17-20%. Major NBFCs and private lenders reported strong profit growth driven by retail and SME lending.
• Capital Goods & Infrastructure: Continued government capex and strong execution backlogs supported steady revenue and profit growth, boosting confidence in future earnings.
• Midcap IT outperforms: While large-cap IT saw flat sequential growth, select midcap technology and digital infrastructure firms posted strong revenue gains on the back of deal wins and data centre projects.
• Other bright spots: Airlines, fragrances & flavours, and recycling companies also delivered healthy quarterly performances despite disruptions from the ongoing West Asia conflict.
• Outlook: The company remains optimistic about the remaining Q1FY27 earnings season and expects market sentiment to strengthen further.

Stock Market LIVE: Muthoot Finance Names Alexander George Muthoot as Managing Director

The Board of Directors has recommended the appointment of Mr. Alexander George Muthoot as Managing Director, effective October 1, 2026 (subject to shareholder approval), as part of a carefully planned leadership succession aimed at ensuring continuity, stability, and long-term growth. As part of this transition, Mr. George Alexander Muthoot will assume the role of Executive Vice Chairman

Repo rate expectation | Expert Take | Anil Godara, Founder and Managing Director, J Estates

“The market is entering the second half of the year with healthy buyer sentiment, and at this stage, stability in monetary policy is more valuable than frequent rate changes. We expect the RBI to maintain the repo rate, which would provide continuity for both homebuyers and developers. A stable interest rate gives buyers greater confidence while planning long-term financial commitments and helps sustain momentum in residential sales. With infrastructure-led growth creating new residential hotspots, demand is increasingly being driven by genuine end-users rather than speculative investors. Policy stability will help ensure this positive trend continues in the coming quarters.”

Rainfall remains weak despite normal rains in July: Emkay Global research

Cumulative rainfall as of 1-Aug-26 was 12% below the long-period average (LPA), as the monsoon improved but remained weak in some areas. Weekly rainfall (as of 29-Jul-26) was 1% above LPA but showed wide spatial divergence. This was also the case for cumulative rainfall, with North and West India in deficit (-12%), the Southern Peninsula (-22%) and East and North-East India (-29%) in heavy deficit; however, Central India (6%) moved into positive territory. July recorded normal rainfall (~99% of LPA), despite fears of an El Niño-led shortfall. However, rainfall was highly uneven, with short spells of heavy rain followed by prolonged dry periods, which will continue to pose a threat to crops.

■ Sowing activity stabilizes: Kharif sowing remains below last year’s level, although the shortfall narrowed significantly in July. Total sown area as of 31-Jul-26 (89mnha) was 3% lower than last year’s. The decline was led by most major food crops—rice (30.1mnha; -2% yoy), pulses (9.5mnha; -6% yoy), and coarse cereals (15.8mnha; -7.5% yoy). Oilseeds (17.2mnha; 1% yoy) was the only food group to record positive growth. Among non-food crops, cotton sowing (10mnha; -2% yoy) also remained below last year. Overall sown area was 81% of the normal area, compared with 84% at the same stage in CY25. With the sowing window for most major crops nearly over, overall kharif acreage is likely to be marginally lower than last year.

■ Food price inflation remains contained: Average weekly retail price increases for cereals, spices, and eggs (all 0.5% week-on-week) were modest, while pulses (0.3%), oils and fats (0.2%), milk (0.2%), and vegetables (0.1%) recorded smaller increases. On an annual basis, average prices of eggs (13%) and oils and fats (11%) remained sharply higher, while spices (4%), milk (3%), cereals (2%), pulses (2%), and vegetables (1%) recorded much lower increases. While healthy cereal buffer stocks should keep prices contained, there are upside risks to prices for perishables such as vegetables, fruits, and pulses due to crop damage from untimely and/or deficient rains.

■ Reservoir levels remain under pressure despite improvement: Overall basin-wise reservoir levels improved but remained well below last year’s levels and the LPA. As of 31-Jul-26, pan-India reservoir levels stood at 44% of capacity, 36% lower than the same period last year and 8% below the LPA for this period. West India had the highest capacity (51%), followed by Central India (39%) and North India (36%). Storage levels were the lowest in Eastern India (36%) and Southern India (30%).

India Strategy | Interim review 1QFY27 (OMCs temper Financials and Metal strength): Motilal Oswal

– The earnings of the aforesaid 211 MOFSL Universe companies inched up 2% YoY (vs. our est. of a 10% YoY dip), primarily weighed down by OMCs. Barring OMCs, the MOFSL Universe posted a 17% YoY earnings growth (vs. our est. of +13% YoY).

– The overall earnings growth was led by BFSI (+20% YoY), Metals (+53% YoY), Technology (+11% YoY), and Automobiles (+7% YoY). In contrast, earnings growth was hit by OMCs (loss of INR181b), Cement (-8% YoY), Healthcare (-6% YoY), and Interglobe (loss of INR3.8b).

– Earnings of the 39 Nifty companies that have declared results so far have grown 11% YoY (vs. our est. of +7% YoY). The earnings growth was led by Reliance Ind., JSW Steel, ICICIB, Bajaj Finance, and Axis Bank. Conversely, Interglobe, ITC, Dr Reddy’s Labs, Cipla, and Maruti Suzuki dragged Nifty earnings lower.

– The Nifty EPS estimates for FY27E and FY28E remained largely unchanged at INR1,225 (vs. INR1,225) and INR1,424 (vs. INR1,422), respectively.

Expert Take | July GST collections | Pratik Jain, Partner, Price Waterhouse & Co LLP

After remaining broadly stable at around Rs 1.95 lakh crore in May and June, GST collections have risen sharply to Rs 2.11 lakh crore in July.

The 15.4% year-on-year increase indicates that economic activity, consumption and tax compliance have remained resilient, while the impact of recent geopolitical disruptions appears to be gradually easing.

If this momentum continues over the next few months, it could provide the Government with the confidence to accelerate the next phase of GST reforms as the regime approaches its 10-year milestone. These reforms may span structural, legislative and administrative measures. GST 3.0 may no longer be a distant idea. It could be closer than many expect.

Govt to introduce Bill to replace 125-year-old law on presenting bank records as evidence in courts

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will introduce the Bankers’ Books Evidence Bill, 2026 in Parliament on Monday, replacing the 125-year-old Bankers’ Books Evidence Act, 1891

Read the full story here

Stock Markets today LIVE: Japan’s Nikkei drops over 2% as yen jumps after joint intervention

Japan’s Nikkei share average fell on Monday from a one-week high in the previous session, hurt by a rapid appreciation ‌in the yen after Tokyo and Washington confirmed they had carried out a rare ⁠joint currency intervention late last week.

The Nikkei sank 2.2% to 62,956.48 by 0058 GMT, while the broader Topix lost ‌2.8% to 3,893.17. Of the Nikkei’s 225 components, 212 fell and only 13 rose.

The ‌yen gained as much as 1.4% to ‌a ⁠four-week high of 155.20 per U.S. dollar, ⁠adding to a 3.8% surge over the previous two sessions. A stronger yen reduces the value of overseas revenue for Japan’s many heavyweight exporters. (Reuters)

BL Explainer: SEBI’s new Closing Auction Session, what investors need to know

Beginning August 3, exchanges will move from the existing volume-weighted average price mechanism, based on the last 30 minutes of trading, to a Closing Auction Session, a 20-minute call auction designed to arrive at a single equilibrium closing price. Read more here

Index derivatives turnover falls as RBI tightens bank funding to prop traders

Index derivatives turnover falls as RBI tightens bank funding to prop traders

RBI’s tighter funding norms lead to a decline in index derivatives turnover, with potential market shifts favoring foreign investors.

Cognizant Targets 16–16.2% Margin In 2026 | Cognizant: Ravi Kumar, CEO

BFSI In US Has Kind Of Seen An Inflection Point: Company

A Good Q1 For AWL Agri Business: AWL Agri Bus: Shrikant Kanhere, MD CEO

If Oil Prices Remain Stable, Revenue Growth Could Be 18%: Shrikant Kanhere, MD CEO

Kotak Institutional Equities Upgrade Zee Entertainment Rating to ADD (from REDUCE) & Raise FV to Rs130 (Rs90 earlier)

India’s gross GST collections rose 15.4% to Rs 2.11 lakh crore in July.