Today’s Real Market Mover Comes After the Rate Decision

Today will be driven by a single event: the . Although markets continue to closely monitor developments in the geopolitical landscape and energy price trends, the real market mover will be the decisions from the U.S. central bank.

At 86:00 p.m. GMT, the Fed will release its , interest-rate decision, the new “dot plot,” and updated . Thirty minutes later, at 8:30 p.m., the press conference with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will begin—an event that could prove even more important than the rate decision itself.

Source: Investing.com Economic Calendar

The markets will enter this event after weeks of mixed economic data: on the one hand, continues to show moderate signs of picking up; on the other, the U.S. economy remains surprisingly resilient and the remains solid. In this context, any signal from the Federal Reserve could significantly alter investors’ expectations for the coming months.

One of the most interesting developments of the day will undoubtedly be Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Federal Reserve Chair. When the chair of the world’s most important central bank changes, investors immediately seek to understand what his approach to monetary policy will be. For this reason, every word Warsh says will be analyzed in minute detail.

The market’s focus will be on whether the new chair will adopt a more “hawkish” or “dovish” stance: a hawkish chair tends to prioritize the fight against inflation, keeping rates high for longer and possibly accepting a slowdown in economic growth to ensure price stability; a dovish chair, on the other hand, tends to focus more on economic growth and employment, and is generally more inclined toward less restrictive monetary policies.

But beyond the labels of “hawk” or “dove,” there will be one central issue above all: inflation.

In recent years, inflation has been the main factor driving the Federal Reserve’s decisions and is likely to remain so in the coming quarters. Investors will therefore seek to understand whether Warsh believes the process of price normalization is complete or whether he still considers it necessary to maintain a prudent monetary policy.

Why Economic Projections Might Be More Important Than Rates

Personally, I do not see a rate hike at today’s meeting as particularly likely. The analyst consensus and market expectations suggest that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.

For this reason, my attention will be focused primarily on the new economic projections.

These projections represent the Federal Reserve’s official view of the U.S. economy. They include updated estimates for:

• growth;
• inflation;
• ;
• future interest rate levels

In practice, they not only describe the current situation but also indicate what the Fed expects to happen in the coming months and years.

If the new estimates were to show inflation proving more persistent than expected or economic growth remaining very robust, the market might interpret the message as relatively restrictive. Conversely, forecasts of weaker growth or inflation slowing rapidly could fuel expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy.

Of particular importance will be the so-called “dot plot,” the chart showing individual FOMC members’ expectations for the future path of interest rates. This is often the document that triggers the strongest reactions in the financial markets.

The Market Continues to Price in a Rate Hike in December

A look at “” reveals a very interesting finding.

Although the market expects rates to remain unchanged at today’s meeting, investors continue to price in a real possibility of a rate hike by the end of the year.

Specifically, for the December 9, 2026, meeting, the most likely scenario is for rates to be between 3.75% and 4.00%, a level that would imply a 25-basis-point increase from the current range of 3.50% to 3.75%.The probabilities currently priced in by the market show:

• about a 40% probability that rates will remain within the current range;
• about a 43% probability of a 25-basis-point hike;
• significantly lower probabilities for further, more aggressive hikes.

In other words, the market currently considers a rate hike by December slightly more likely than rates staying unchanged. However, these expectations could change significantly as early as this evening.

Watch for Volatility During the Press Conference

The most sensitive part of the day could begin at 8:30 p.m., when Kevin Warsh answers questions from reporters. Markets often react relatively mildly to the Fed’s initial statement but then experience much larger swings during the press conference.

This happens because the statement is generally very brief and leaves room for different interpretations. The press conference, on the other hand, allows the central bank chair to provide clarifications, insights, and guidance on the future direction of monetary policy.

Every statement made by Warsh could alter investors’ expectations regarding future interest rates and, consequently, immediately influence the performance of stocks, bonds, the dollar, , and commodities.

For this reason, it will be crucial not to focus exclusively on the 8:00 p.m. decision, but also to closely follow the subsequent press conference.

What Really Matters to the Markets

The real question investors want answered is not so much what the Fed will do today, but what it will do over the next six to twelve months. Tonight’s rate decision may already be largely priced in by the markets. Far more important will be understanding how the Federal Reserve views the U.S. economy, how it assesses inflation, and what path it envisions for interest rates in the near future.

Ultimately, the message that emerges from the economic projections and Kevin Warsh’s remarks could have a much more significant impact on the markets than today’s rate decision. And it is precisely for this reason that volatility could increase significantly as the evening progresses.

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