The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price has been stuck below $80,000 for the past three months. Every push toward the $80K level has been rejected so far, with BTC pulling back anytime it gets above $79,000. Then in the early Singapore hours today, the $80K resistance finally cracked, with BTC pushing past it to hit $80,500—its highest level since the U.S. and Iran war started.
Trump rejected Iran’s 14-point peace proposal late Sunday night, but announced “Project Freedom”—a U.S. military operation to escort stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning Middle East time. The move pulled Brent crude back to around $107 from last Thursday’s $126 spike, easing the pressure on the crypto market once again.
Although the Bitcoin price has briefly retraced to $79,500, let’s examine if BTC can convincingly break above $80,000 and hold it.
Bitcoin Cleared $80,000 After Trump’s Iran Response
Trump posted on Truth Social Sunday afternoon that the U.S. would launch “Project Freedom” Monday morning Middle East time—a military operation involving 15,000 service members and over 100 aircraft to escort stranded merchant ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. The market read it as Washington finally moving to break the blockade that has choked off 20% of the world’s oil supply since the war started.
Hours later, as Asia opened, BTC pushed through $80,000. The Bitcoin price hit $80,529 in early Singapore hours today, May 4. Brent crude, which had spiked to $126 last Thursday, settled back near $107.
Short sellers got crushed on Bitcoin’s way up. Around $303 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with $108 million of those shorts forced out in a single hour as BTC held above $80,000. Traders had been heavily betting against this break, and the moment the $80K wall cracked, they had to buy back into a rising market.
The Bitcoin price has now pulled back to $79,500 as some of the heat came out of the move. But for the first time in three months, BTC is trading on the right side of $80,000.
Bitcoin Hits $80,000 But On-Chain Data Reveals a Catch
This is the first time Bitcoin has cleared $80,000 since late January. But the price level is not the only line that matters. By pushing past $80K, BTC also reclaimed its bull market support band—the moving average band traders watch to tell if the market is bullish or bearish.
That band has capped every recovery attempt for the past few months. The previous four rallies all stalled below $79,000, which is well short of the band. Closing above it now is the structural shift that has been missing all year.
By pushing above $80,000, Bitcoin also cleared the True Market Mean—the cost basis for the average BTC holder. Anyone who bought in the last six months and has been underwater is back at break-even, which removes a big chunk of the “sell the rally” pressure that has dragged BTC back every time it tried to push higher.
But there’s a catch. CryptoQuant’s April report showed Bitcoin’s rally from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven entirely by perpetual futures demand, with spot buying actively contracting through the month. The rally was built on leverage rather than fresh capital coming in to buy actual coins.
The same pattern appeared at the start of the 2022 bear market, and what followed was a multi-month decline. The CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index dropped from 50 to 40 over April, moving from neutral back into bearish territory. Unless spot demand flips positive in the coming weeks, leveraged traders would likely close their positions and send BTC back into the $75,000–$77,000 range.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for the Rest of May
The Bitcoin price could go three different ways from here, and which way it goes depends on the bulls stepping in to back up the price.
Bull Prediction: $85,000–$100,000
If BTC closes above $82,000—the 200-day moving average—the longer downtrend would be broken. This would make the $85,000 to $88,000 range the next resistance to target and $100,000 as the bigger target.
For that to happen, Bitcoin ETF inflows would need to keep building on Friday’s $630 million haul, Iran tensions would have to keep easing, and the CLARITY Act would need to move in the Senate. With many traders still shorting this break, a clean push above $82,000 would force them to buy back at higher prices and accelerate the move.
Base Prediction: $78,000–$83,500 Range
The base forecast is the most likely outcome, and Polymarket traders are betting that way too. They give BTC hitting $85,000 by month-end a 47% chance, but only 21% odds of clearing $90,000. That points to BTC trading in the $78,000 to $83,500 range for most of May, knocking on $82,000 a few times without breaking through.
Bitcoin’s April rally was built on leverage rather than strong buying, which fits this outcome—once the short squeeze runs its course, there would be no fresh demand left to push the BTC price higher.
Bear Prediction: $66,000–$73,500
If BTC gets rejected at $80,000 and the funding rate on perpetual futures flips negative, things could turn ugly. A negative funding rate would mean traders are paying to hold their long bets open, which usually forces them to bail out.
The first level to give would be $75,000, then $73,500 at the 50-day moving average. Below $73,500, there’s an air pocket down to $66,000 with no major support, where BTC could drop if Iran talks collapse, oil spikes back toward $130, or ETF flows reverse.
The Next 72 Hours Could Decide if Bitcoin Holds $80,000
Bitcoin’s break above $80K is not yet confirmed, and the next 24 to 72 hours will likely tell us if BTC can climb above it and hold. The on-chain data still shows leverage doing most of the work, so spot demand has to step up before the move gets validated. Above $80,000, there’s a closed CME futures gap at $84,500 that has acted as a magnetic level all year, and a sustained push higher could pull BTC straight there.
Two things could decide where the Bitcoin price goes from here. The first is the perp funding rate—if it flips negative as BTC tests $82,000, the rally will lose its main driver. The second is spot ETF flow on Monday and Tuesday. If the inflows from late last week extend further, BTC would get the real buying it needs to hold $80K. If they reverse, today’s break could end up looking like a false start.