Bitcoin (BTC) fell from its local high at $79,500 as traders repositioned ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.
Historical data shows that since the start of 2025, BTC has corrected seven out of 10 times after an interest rate cut.
Bitcoin’s reaction to interest rate cut decisions in 2025 and 2026 shows a clear pattern. The price often moved higher in the days before the meeting, followed by negative returns afterward, as illustrated in the chart.
BTC price reaction post FOMC meet. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The seven-day returns ranged from +6.92% to –29.57% across 10 FOMC meetings.
BTC 7-day reaction after FOMC (visual heatmap table). Source: Cointelegraph
Over the past two years, the post-FOMC price action has been driven less by the rate outcome and more by shifts in liquidity and leverage conditions.
During the Jan. 29–Feb 5 drawdown, when BTC fell roughly 30%, derivatives data highlighted the extent of this dynamic. Futures open interest declined sharply, falling to $49 billion from around $61 billion over the course of a week, signaling an aggressive unwind of leveraged positions.
This deleveraging phase triggered an estimated $2.5 billion in BTC-specific liquidations, with total crypto liquidations reaching $4.5 billion over the same period.
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said that the setup was typical pre-FOMC behavior from the traders. The view frames the pullback as a routine correction tied to the policy uncertainty, with van de Poppe adding,
“It almost always happens prior to the event, as there’s still a lot of fear for FED policies from the markets.”
The analyst noted that as long as the price holds above $73,000, the higher range may remain intact in the near term.
Related: Three Bitcoin charts say BTC price may rally toward $82K
Strategy buying BTC offsets the weak sentiment
While short-term price action reflects caution around macro events, the broader demand picture suggests a strong structural bid beneath the market.
Corporate BTC accumulation continues to play a key role. Strategy has significantly expanded its Bitcoin holdings in 2026, increasing its total balance to 818,334 BTC from 672,497 on Jan. 1, adding 145,837 BTC.
The purchases are partly funded through Stretch (STRC) offerings, in which the firm raises capital via equity-linked instruments and allocates the proceeds to Bitcoin.
Strategy BTC holdings in 2026. Source: bitcointreasuries.net
Bitcoin macro researcher Ecoinometrics noted that the pace mirrors the late-2024 accumulation, though current conditions are less bullish.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned positive again, with roughly $3.5 billion in net inflows over the past two months. This resurgence signals renewed institutional participation, even as the short-term sentiment remains cautious.
BTC is finding support at key price levels. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Since March, the return of institutional demand for BTC has coincided with the crypto asset forming support levels at key price ranges, such as $60,000, $65,000 and $70,000.
While macro-driven events like the FOMC continue to trigger short-term volatility and risk-off behavior, this underlying demand base is helping cushion deeper drawdowns and support a more resilient long-term market structure for Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin price drops below $76K as onchain data sends mixed signals