This is one of the busiest weeks of the year on the economic calendar. Five major central banks meet: the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. Five mega-cap tech names report earnings: , , , , and .
Wednesday brings the advance Q1-2025 report, and Thursday the March , which will show how much of the oil shock has hit the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. There will also be plenty of fresh survey data, with regional business surveys complementing Friday’s national print, plus the Conference Board’s April , all on tape.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by both the US and Iran remains the overriding issue. Both the US and Iran declined to meet in Islamabad this weekend. The price of a barrel of closed at $105.33 on Friday, almost $20 above last week’s low (chart).
With that said, let’s take a look at the key releases most likely to shape investors’ thinking on growth, , and the central bank reaction function this week:
1. FOMC and the global central bank docket
All five central banks are expected to remain on hold, leaving their policy rates roughly where they’ve been since late 2025 (chart). As is usually the case when the rate decisions themselves are foregone conclusions, investors will be reading the official commentary closely. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday is the main event. The pronouncements of the other central bankers will all be parsed for how they frame the oil shock, the growth slowdown, and inflation pass-through.
2. GDP
Q1-2025 GDP (Wed) is likely to be up 1.2% according to the Atlanta Fed’s model. We are still blaming bad weather in January and February for the weakness (chart).
3. Inflation
March PCED (Thu) is the first clean read on how much of the oil shock is reaching the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. inflation was 2.8% y/y in February (chart). The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model projects to rise to 3.39% y/y in March (0.59% m/m).
The inflation rate is tracking at 3.10% y/y and (chart).
4. Unemployment
(Thu) rose to 214,000 for the week of April 17, with the four-week moving average edging up to 210,800 (chart). ticked up to 1,821,000, though the four-week moving average continues to trend lower (chart). The labor market likely remained resilient during the second half of April.
5. Manufacturing surveys
Along with Friday’s national M-PMI, business surveys will be released by the (Mon), Richmond Fed (Tue), and (Thu). The April regional composite already sits at 15.9 based on the three available surveys (chart). That suggests another solid reading for April’s M-PMI.
6. Consumer Confidence
April’s Index survey (Tue) might follow April’s Index lower (chart). While sentiment matters, consumers are still spending for now. The latest CCI survey might find that employment indicators are showing some signs of life, in our opinion.
