- Fed FOMC Meeting, Powell press conference, Big Tech earnings, and Iran war developments will be in focus this week.
- Apple is set for the spotlight with earnings and strong guidance expected this week.
- ExxonMobil faces headwinds from possible weak guidance and geopolitics.
U.S. stocks ended mostly higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the notching new record peaks as investors assessed signs of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, while a surge in Intel shares added further support.
Source: Investing.com
For the major averages, however, the week was mixed. The S&P 500 ended up about 0.6%, while the Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 1.5% and 0.4% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, recorded a 0.4% decline.
The blockbuster week ahead is expected to be a busy one filled with several market-moving events, including a key Federal Reserve policy meeting, as well as a flurry of heavyweight tech earnings.
The U.S. central bank is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged in the final meeting presided over by Chair Jerome Powell. The big question now, which Powell may answer at his Wednesday news conference, is whether he intends to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors until his term expires in February 2028.
Source: Investing.com
Besides the Fed, next week also features some noteworthy economic reports, including data on first-quarter GDP, as well as the core PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric.
Meanwhile, the earnings season hits full swing, with five of the massive ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks scheduled to deliver their latest results this week. Alphabet, Microsoft, , and Meta Platforms report on Wednesday evening, while is due late Thursday.
Source: Investing.com
These mega-caps will be joined by other big names like Eli Lilly, , Chevron, Visa, Mastercard, UPS, Caterpillar, General Motors, Ford, Verizon, Coca-Cola, Starbucks, SanDisk, Qualcomm, Robinhood, and Reddit.
Investors will also continue to track developments in the Middle East and oil prices amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Regardless of which direction the market goes, below I highlight one stock likely to be in demand and another which could see fresh downside. Remember though, my timeframe is just for the week ahead, Monday, April 27 – Friday, May 1.
Stock To Buy: Apple
Apple is set to report earnings this week, and expectations are building for a positive surprise. Analysts project renewed strength in iPhone sales, particularly in key international markets where demand has stabilized.
More importantly, the Services segment—including the App Store, Apple Music, and iCloud—is expected to deliver double-digit growth, bolstering margins and demonstrating the durability of Apple’s high-margin recurring revenue streams.
The expected move in the options market is about +/-4.5% up or down. Profit estimates have been revised upward 26 times in recent weeks, according to an InvestingPro survey, with just one downward revision, reflecting growing bullishness around Apple’s earnings potential.
Source: InvestingPro
Apple is seen earning an adjusted $1.93 per share for the March-ended quarter, marking an 18% increase from the prior year. Meanwhile, revenue is forecast to jump 15% year-over-year to $108.9 billion.
Investors are pricing in continued double-digit growth in Services, resilient iPhone demand (especially in China and emerging markets), and early traction from Apple Intelligence features that are finally rolling out at scale.
Beyond the numbers, the market is also beginning to price in the upcoming CEO change. CEO Tim Cook will step down September 1, 2026, handing the reins to John Ternus. Leadership transitions always add uncertainty, but Cook’s move to Executive Chairman signals stability in vision, not a sharp strategic pivot.
Source: Investing.com
Apple has been trading in a well-defined uptrend, supported by its 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $260.15 and $253.34, respectively, with its current price near $271. This momentum is reinforced by a healthy RSI at 58.57, signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
With sentiment already constructive and the earnings bar set reasonably low after last quarter’s mixed results, AAPL looks primed for a post-earnings pop.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: ~$271
- Exit Target: $288 (gain +6.3%)
- Stop-Loss: $258.30 (risk -4.7%)
Stock to Sell: ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil, on the other hand, faces a more challenging outlook this week. The primary catalyst is guidance, which is expected to disappoint relative to the high bar set by the recent oil rally.
Adding to the pressure is the geopolitical backdrop. Any meaningful de-escalation in the war with Iran would likely trigger a swift drop in .
Analysts have grown increasingly cautious on XOM ahead of the print, with all 15 of the last revisions being made to the downside. The options market is pricing in a potential move of +/-2.1% for shares post-earnings.
Source: InvestingPro
Consensus calls for ExxonMobil to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.03, falling 41% from the year-ago period, with sales expected to dip 2% to $81.2 billion.
While upstream production and downstream margins have held up reasonably well, analysts are bracing for conservative commentary on capital spending and near-term oil-price assumptions amid softening global demand signals.
In this environment, any disappointing or cautious guidance from management could hit the shares.
Source: Investing.com
Technically, ExxonMobil also appears vulnerable to a pullback. After a strong run, the stock is extended relative to key moving averages and prior bases, trading around $149. The RSI is a muted 45.13, pointing to waning momentum, and the recent 1-month return is a sharp -10%.
With guidance likely to underwhelm and oil prices vulnerable to any positive headline out of the region, we recommend trimming or outright selling XOM ahead of the print.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: ~$148.90
- Exit Target: $142.01 (gain +4.6%)
- Stop-Loss: $154.20 (risk -3.6%)
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Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.