Bitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed their activity on Thursday as the BTC price slipped below the $70,000 mark.
Analysts said that Bitcoin showed signs of a bear market in its last stages, due to extreme fear and elevated realized and unrealized losses.
Key takeaways:
-
Bitcoin enters the last stages of the bear market, characterized by extreme fear and most BTC supply in loss.
-
High unrealized losses and a 96% drop in realized profits suggest “demand exhaustion.”
-
$70,000 remains the main BTC level to watch for now, with $65,000-$60,000 support below.
Bitcoin holder losses increase
Bitcoin’s bear market has seen its price draw down by more than 44% from its $126,000 all-time high, reached on Oct. 6, 2025.
This has pushed its Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), the difference between total profits and losses currently held by investors, below 0.25, placing it in the “hope/fear zone,” according to data from CryptoQuant.
Related: $18.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday: Should traders prepare for $75K BTC?
This means, “roughly 40% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is held at a loss,” CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader said in a Quicktake note.
Coupled with the Fear and Greed Index in the “Extreme Fear” at 15, this “reflects pain and uncertainty,” the analyst said, adding:
“A NUPL recovery above 0.25 would mark a transition into the optimism zone, a shift that has historically aligned with strengthening price momentum.”
This structurally resembles conditions seen in previous bear markets, where the NUPL continued dropping to areas below 0 as Bitcoin found its bottom.
When analysing the volume of coins held at a loss as a fraction of total market capitalization, Glassnode found that the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of relative unrealized losses has stabilized at 15%.
“This positions the current sentiment as one of elevated fear,” Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain newsletter, adding:
“Historically, resolving this level of embedded loss requires either time, further price depression, or an extraordinary and sustained influx of fresh capital within a compressed timeframe.”
Bitcoin’s entity-adjusted realized profit has also dropped from a peak of $3 billion per day in July 2025 to below $0.1 billion today.
This is a more than 96% decline, “offering further evidence of demand exhaustion,” Glassnode said, adding:
“Contractions of this magnitude are a textbook characteristic of a bear market transitioning into its later stages, where the pool of profitable sellers has been largely depleted, and on-chain liquidity thins to cycle lows.”
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan said that while some indicators suggest BTC/USD bottomed at $60,000, “more consistent and decisive confirmation signals” are required to confirm a true bottom.
Watch these Bitcoin price levels next
Since recovering from multi-year lows below $60,000, the BTC/USD pair remains stuck in a range with $64,000 as support and $72,000 as resistance.
Bitcoin is now fighting to hold on to the 1w–1m cohort cost basis at $70,200, “marking the developing support floor,” Glassnode said.
However, the cost basis distribution heatmap shows a modest accumulation cluster at this level, making it “vulnerable.” Glassnode:
“A higher probability of a breakdown below this level cannot be dismissed until a more substantial base of committed buyers is established.”
Below that, the next major level to watch is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000. The 2022 bear market bottom was formed after Bitcoin dropped toward its realized price.
On the upside, Glassnode said that the 1m-3m cohort cost basis at $82,200 represented a key overhead resistance, coinciding with a heavy concentration of short-term holder supply above $84,000.
This is a “cohort that could amplify sell pressure whether price stages a recovery toward those levels or faces a renewed episode of market stress,” Glassnode added.
In an X post on Thursday, technical analyst CryptoPatel said Bitcoin’s recent surge to $76,000 was just a lower high, adding that the higher time frame structure points “lower from here,” with the next real area of interest sitting under $50,000.
“Even if $76K breaks, there is another bearish order block between $86,000 and $90,000 waiting right above.”
As Cointelegraph reported, a close below the 20-day exponential moving average at $70,303 could fuel BTC’s price drop toward the $62,500-$60,000 support zone.