Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin experienced a nearly 3% decline this week, retreating from $76,000 to approximately $70,000
- Federal Reserve maintained current rates while projecting just one reduction in 2026, dampening risk asset enthusiasm
- Citi analyst reduced Bitcoin price projection from $143,000 down to $112,000 due to legislative roadblocks
- Strategy expanded its holdings by purchasing 22,337 BTC, increasing total reserves to 761,068 BTC
- Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF with planned ticker symbol MSBT
Bitcoin began the trading week with strong performance, surging to $76,000 on Tuesday — marking its peak level since the beginning of February. However, this upward trajectory proved short-lived.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the 3.50%–3.75% range on Wednesday, marking its consecutive second meeting without adjustment. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that escalating tensions involving Iran would likely elevate inflation pressures, diminishing the probability of rate reductions during the current year. The central bank’s updated projections anticipate a single rate reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, while increasing its PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%.
This conservative monetary approach negatively impacted risk-oriented investments. Bitcoin dipped beneath $69,000 on Thursday before bouncing back to approximately $70,843 by Friday — representing a weekly decline approaching 3%.
Central Bank Messaging Pressures Markets
Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, observed that the Fed elevated both inflation and economic growth forecasts. She emphasized that the press conference centered predominantly on inflationary concerns, characterizing the overall messaging as “rather hawkish.”
Escalating crude oil values, sparked by Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas infrastructure, intensified market pressures. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, commented: “Increasing energy expenses, postponed monetary easing prospects, and a strengthening dollar are fostering a more discriminating investment climate.”
The $70,000 threshold has emerged as the critical level for market participants. Analyst Iliya Kalchev from Nexo Dispatch suggested that maintaining this level “invites a stabilization trade,” whereas breaching it “reopens the path toward the next support cluster.”
Banking Giant Lowers Outlook as Legislative Progress Stalls
Citi analyst Alex Saunders reduced his Bitcoin valuation target to $112,000 from the previous $143,000 projection. This adjustment stems from the Clarity Act — proposed cryptocurrency market framework legislation — encountering congressional obstacles. Probability metrics on Polymarket indicate passage likelihood has fallen to 60%, declining sharply from approximately 90% in February.
President Trump expressed on Truth Social: “The U.S. needs to get market structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”
Notwithstanding the challenging week, Strategy’s Michael Saylor revealed on Monday that the company acquired an additional 22,337 BTC. The firm’s cumulative position currently totals 761,068 BTC, with a mean acquisition cost of $75,696.
Bitcoin spot ETF activity displayed variable patterns throughout the week. Monday and Tuesday recorded positive flows of $201 million and $199 million respectively, while Wednesday and Thursday witnessed outflows totaling $163 million and $90 million.
Concurrently, technical analysis shared by cryptocurrency account CryptoBullet identified a rising wedge formation on BTC charts, suggesting a possible decline toward sub-$50,000 levels should the pattern complete its breakdown sequence.
Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 registration document with the SEC for a spot Bitcoin ETF, scheduled for NYSE Arca listing under ticker MSBT. Upon regulatory approval, this would represent the inaugural spot BTC ETF launched directly by a major American banking institution.
