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Bitcoin has jumped almost 14% since late February 2026, outpacing gold and traditional stocks as investors turn to it as a safe haven amid rising tensions in the Middle East and increasing oil prices.
However, analysts warn that the cryptocurrency is entering uncharted territory: a broad-based, prolonged economic slowdown, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
Moody’s recession probability model recently reached 48.6%, signalling a heightened risk of a global downturn that could test Bitcoin’s resilience like never before.
Bitcoin markets may face pressure during a recession if investors avoid risky assets, but could also see increased demand as a decentralized, borderless alternative when traditional financial systems fail, reflecting Bitcoin’s origin as a response to the 2008 financial crisis.
Past crises missed bitcoin’s true stress test
Despite multiple market shocks over the past decade, Bitcoin has never been exposed to a traditional recession. The cryptocurrency emerged after the 2008 financial crisis, missing the Great Recession entirely. Subsequent downturns, including the COVID-19 liquidity crash and the 2022 FTX fallout, were either short-lived or crypto-specific events, failing to provide a genuine macroeconomic test.
Current indicators suggest a different scenario: U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, February payrolls dropped by 92,000, and Brent crude surpassed $103 per barrel. Analysts point to stagflation risks, with slowing growth paired with persistent inflation, creating a complex environment for digital assets.
Institutional ownership poses a defining challenge
Bitcoin’s growing institutional footprint intensifies the test. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.4 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, placing the cryptocurrency alongside equities and bonds in diversified portfolios. A prolonged recession will force institutional holders to decide whether to treat Bitcoin as a high-risk asset or a macro hedge.
Rising energy prices may also delay central bank rate cuts, removing the typical monetary cushion during economic slowdowns. Observers say the next 12 months could determine Bitcoin’s long-term identity: if it maintains value while traditional markets falter, it solidifies its status as digital gold; if it falls with equities, the safe-haven narrative may be seriously challenged.
Notably, according to a recent report from Santiment, crypto markets are showing signs of accumulation as investors anticipate the White House’s March 1 internal deadline related to the Clarity Act.