Stock Market Today (LIVE): S&P 500 Closes At 2026 Low Amid Iran and Oil Turmoil

📌 Top story — scroll down for more updates

Uber Founder Debuts Secret Robots

4:15 pm

 

Travis Kalanick is back in the arena, rebranding his real estate venture into Atoms, a robotics firm aimed at disrupting transport, mining, and food. The Uber (UBER +0.49%) co-founder revealed the company has operated in stealth for eight years, employing thousands to develop “gainfully employed robots.” While Uber offloaded its autonomous unit to Aurora Innovation (AUR 3.77%) years ago, Kalanick’s “wheelbase for robots” suggests a direct challenge to the ride-hailing giant’s long-term automation roadmap.

• The Ghost Kitchen Evolution: By pivoting CloudKitchens into Atoms, Kalanick aims to automate the entire food stack, potentially undercutting the delivery margins Uber currently relies on.

• A New Industrial Titan: Expanding beyond transport into mining infrastructure marks a massive scale shift, positioning the startup to compete for the physical hardware layer of the global economy.

Musk Orders Massive xAI Rebuild

3:25 pm

Elon Musk is overhauling xAI “from the foundations up” following a wave of co-founder departures and hiring missteps. This restructuring occurs just as SpaceX prepares for a record-breaking IPO later this year, having recently merged with xAI in a deal valuing the entities at $1.25 trillion. While the startup struggles with talent retention and international investigations into its Grok chatbot, Tesla (TSLA 0.88%) remains deeply entwined in the drama. The automaker continues to integrate xAI models into its Optimus robots and navigation systems, while simultaneously generating revenue by selling massive battery backup systems to xAI’s expanding data centers.

• Strategic Pivot to Coding: Chasing the success of Alphabet – (GOOG 0.56%) and Microsoft – (MSFT 1.57%) backed rivals, Musk has ordered job cuts and fresh hiring from startup Cursor to fix xAI’s lagging development tools.
• Energy Infrastructure Push: Despite the internal exodus, xAI is aggressively securing permits for massive natural gas power plants to fuel its Tennessee data hubs, a move critical for maintaining its new government defense contracts.

Closing Bell

4:05 pm

Wall Street’s losing streak hit three weeks as the S&P 500 sank to a 2026 low. The tech-heavy Nasdaq bore the brunt of the selling, sliding 0.93% as crude oil futures surged. Investors are fleeing to safety while Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushes Brent crude above $103. Despite the Pentagon’s attempts to downplay supply chain risks, the market is pricing in a “higher for longer” interest rate environment to combat potential energy-driven inflation.

BBB Foods: Cleanup on Aisle Margins

3:15 pm — BBB +2.9%

If you came to BBB Foods (TBBB +4.44%) for strong comps stacked on top of brisk expansion, you weren’t disappointed. Tiendas 3B’s parent posted 34% revenue growth in Thursday’s Q4 report. A 16.6% surge in comps and a 21% increase in its store count helped deliver another quarter of top-line growth north of 30%. Things get messier after that, as an improving store-level operating margin was imploded by a surge in SBC and administrative expenses. 2026 guidance finds BBB Foods calling for 29% to 32% top-line growth this year, as an 18% to 19% increase in new stores is enhanced by a 13% to 16% pop in comps.

Strong Comps, Soft Guidance Hit Ulta Stock

2:30 pm — ULTA -12.9%

Ulta Beauty (ULTA 14.24%) put up strong sales growth in its holiday quarter, but rising costs and cautious forward guidance pushed the stock lower.

Revenue grew 11.8% to $3.90 billion, ahead of Wall Street’s estimate of $3.81 billion. Comparable sales (a measure of performance at stores open at least a year) also jumped 5.8%, up from just 1.5% a year earlier. Space NK, the UK luxury beauty retailer Ulta acquired in July 2025, drove part of that acceleration and gave the business its first international store presence. But SG&A expenses (costs covering store operations and corporate overhead) grew 17.4%, a rate that outpaced revenue growth. That gap squeezed diluted EPS down 5.3% to $8.01.

The bigger issue for investors was the outlook.

ServiceNow CEO Warns of Job Crisis

2:35 pm — ULTA -12.9%

ServiceNow (NOW +0.51%) CEO Bill McDermott issued a stark warning Friday, predicting AI agent adoption could drive unemployment for new college graduates into the mid-30s. As businesses prioritize productivity over headcount, entry-level white-collar roles in coding and marketing are increasingly automated. This sentiment is echoed across the sector: Amazon (AMZN 0.87%) and Palantir (PLTR 1.66%) have signaled plans to shrink corporate workforces while scaling revenue. McDermott noted ServiceNow has already automated 90% of its customer service use cases, highlighting a rapid shift where AI agents — not human trainees — become the primary engine for corporate growth and free cash flow.

• The Efficiency Paradox: While massive layoffs at firms like Block (XYZ 0.18%) spook labor advocates, they often result in leaner, higher-margin operations that delight long-term shareholders.
• A Redefinition of Entry-Level Value: With traditional junior tasks being handled by bots, the premium on “human-only” skill sets will likely force a massive pivot in how the next generation of workers competes for corporate relevance.

Amazon Bets on Ad-Free Revenue Jump

1:05 pm — AMZN -0.9%

Amazon (AMZN 0.87%) is raising the price of its ad-free Prime Video tier by $2 a month, bringing the monthly add-on to $4.99 starting April 10. Rebranded as “Prime Video Ultra,” the new tier includes 4K streaming and simultaneous viewing on five devices to justify the jump. This move underscores Amazon’s aggressive push into high-margin services; the company’s advertising revenue surged 22% last year to $68.6 billion as its ad-supported audience reached 315 million global viewers. Despite past legal challenges from disgruntled subscribers, Amazon’s membership numbers continue to climb, signaling that management sees significant pricing power left in the Prime ecosystem.

• Monetizing the Captive Audience: By making the ad-free option significantly more expensive, Amazon effectively nudges users toward the ad-supported tier, where lucrative data-driven commercials fuel double-digit revenue growth.
• The Premium Bundle Play: Adding 4K capabilities and higher download limits suggests a shift toward the “Netflix model” of tiered features, aiming to extract more lifetime value from power users without alienating the base membership.

Adobe’s AI Wins Can’t Silence the Bears

12:05 pm — ADBE -6.6%

 Adobe ‘s (ADBE 7.53%) story across these two quarters is one of genuine strategic progress shadowed by equally genuine uncertainty. The AI metrics are impressive and getting better — AI-first ARR tripled, MAU hit 850 million, credit consumption surged — and the enterprise pipeline is real. These aren’t vanity numbers. But the bears aren’t working from nothing either: total ARR growth has decelerated for two consecutive quarters, the stock business is eroding faster than planned, and the freemium-to-paid conversion engine remains more theory than demonstrated fact.

Now layer on a CEO departure with no successor named, and reasonable people can disagree on where this lands. It’s possible Adobe is mid-transformation and the leading indicators will prove out. It’s also possible the market is correctly pricing in that AI-native competition permanently caps the growth trajectory. Both readings are defensible with the current data. The next two quarters — and the next CEO — will tell us which one was right.

In the meantime, I am inclined to stay on the sidelines.

Amazon, Cerebras Team Up for AI

11:25 am — AMZN -0.3%

Amazon (AMZN 0.87%) and chip startup Cerebras Systems have partnered to challenge Nvidia (NVDA 1.56%) in the high-stakes AI inference market. By integrating Cerebras chips with Amazon’s custom Trainium3 silicon within AWS data centers, the duo plans to launch a high-speed “divide and conquer” service for chatbots and coding tools. Amazon is positioning the offering, arriving in late 2026, as a better value than Nvidia’s upcoming solutions. For investors, this move marks a significant escalation in Amazon’s effort to verticalize its AI stack and reduce reliance on expensive third-party GPUs, potentially protecting margins as AI demand scales.

• Strategic Decoupling: The partnership utilizes Cerebras’ architecture to bypass the costly high-bandwidth memory bottleneck that currently inflates Nvidia’s flagship chip prices.
• First-Mover Ambition: Amazon claims its coordinated chip rollout is just months away from production, potentially beating Nvidia’s own integrated startup solutions to market.

Today’s Take: Evolving Investing With Age

11:15 am

Standard financial advice says to get conservative as you age, but what if your “edge” is in high-growth tech? Our team is debating whether to follow the traditional retirement playbook or stick with high-conviction stocks well into their 60s.

How has your risk tolerance changed over the last decade? Are you getting more “boring” with age, or are you still hunting for the next big innovator? Members can share their thoughts in Today’s Take!

Openings Tick Up as Layoffs Ease

10:30 am

Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a surprising spark in a cooling economy: U.S. job openings edged up to 6.9 million in January, beating economist expectations of 6.8 million. While broad market indicators like the S&P 500 have been weighed down by recent job losses, this report shows layoffs actually declined to 1.6 million. The figures offer a momentary counter-narrative to February’s bleak payroll decline, suggesting that while the “quit rate” remains low at 2%, the labor floor hasn’t collapsed yet. For investors, this stabilization provides a necessary data point for the Federal Reserve as it weighs interest rate paths against a backdrop of stagnant growth and geopolitical volatility.

• Fending Off the Downturn: Despite record-low hiring plans reported by private firms like Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the government’s data suggests established vacancies are stickier than predicted.
• The Confidence Gap: A steady 2% quits rate indicates workers are still clutching their current roles tightly, potentially capping wage-push inflation but limiting consumer mobility.

Adobe Settles Legal Fight Over Exit Fees

10:15 am — ADBE -6.4%

Adobe (ADBE 7.53%) agreed to a $75 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice to resolve allegations of predatory subscription practices. Regulators accused the software giant of hiding “hefty” termination fees and intentionally complicating the cancellation process for its “annual paid monthly” plans. While Adobe denies any wrongdoing, the company will pay $75 million in cash and provide an additional $75 million in free services to affected users. This legal resolution removes a significant regulatory overhang for the Creative Cloud provider, though it may force a permanent shift in how the company structures its high-margin recurring revenue models moving forward.

• Cleaning Up the Fine Print: The deal mandates more transparent disclosure of monthly fees, potentially lowering the barrier for users to churn during periods of economic tightening.
• Customer Restitution Costs: Beyond the cash penalty, the pledge of $75 million in free services represents a direct hit to future billings that could slightly dilute near-term revenue growth.

Adobe’s Next Leader Faces AI Reckoning

9:40 am — ADBE -6.8%

Adobe (ADBE 7.53%) CEO Shantanu Narayen, who announced yesterday that he is stepping down, has been at Adobe since 1998. He’s been the face of Adobe for almost two decades, making him one of the longest serving CEOs of a major large-cap company. And while the stock has outperformed the S&P over his tenure as CEO, it has trailed the Nasdaq 100, with special difficulty over the past five.

My reaction to Narayen’s announcement was: He’s earned it, good for him, and time to find the next leader to make Adobe as competitive as ever. But that task is increasingly challenging. Even as the company makes ever more investments into AI, and even as it’s showing genuine progress, the AI sword of Damocles hangs over its head — more specifically, the head of its high-margin business model.

Opening Bell

9:35 am

The Dow rose 301 points Friday as West Texas Intermediate crude retreated 3% to $92, offering a reprieve from recent $100 Brent peaks. While the S&P 500 is still tracking for its first three-week losing streak in a year, stocks found support from Personal Consumption Expenditures data, which showed annual inflation at 2.8% — slightly cooler than forecasted. However, the optimism is tempered by a sharp downward revision to fourth-quarter GDP, which grew at a meager 0.7% rate. Morgan Stanley analysts warn that while “AI buildouts” remain a tailwind, a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the market’s primary threat.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — ADBE -7.74% in pre-market trading

Adobe (ADBE 7.53%) fell almost 8% ahead of the market open after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he will step down as part of the broader quarterly results. Revenue and earnings beat estimates, with annualized revenue from AI-first products more than tripling.

• “I want to recognize Shantanu’s contributions as CEO and…for positioning Adobe for success in the AI-driven era”: Frank Calderino, the lead independent director, stated Narayen will stay on until after a successor has been appointed, with the process likely to take several months.
• “That should be our next billion-dollar business”: Narayen pointed to the AI-first product set as being a key profit driver. The company also reported a 17% increase in the number of monthly users across products including Acrobat and Firefly.

Top of the Morning: Build-a-Bear

7:00 am

After nearly 13 years in the top job, Build-a-Bear‘s (BBW 1.61%) CEO Sharon Price John is handing the reins over to COO Chris Hurt. But before she leaves her job, it’s important to give a hat tip to the current CEO and the team that has led the company to new heights.

Sharon Price John was quoted by CNBC saying that: “When I first came in 2013, …the brand was strong…[but, the company had] …a broken business.” Today, it looks like that business is repaired.

During her earnings call sign off, Price John explained that there’s been a lot of change since 2019. The company expanded its addressable market and improved its financials. For example, its revenues improved by more than 50%, pre-tax margins expanded from about 0% to nearly 13%, and the company almost doubled its store contribution margins (store-level EBIT margin for all corporate stores). Build-a-Bear has also gone from a cash burn of about -$1.7 million in 2019 to consistently generating free cash flow. And that free cash flow was important too, because it helped the company return value to shareholders. Build-a-Brear reported that of the years, it paid out $170 million in dividends and repurchased over 4 million shares (which slashed its number of shares by about 25% from its peak).

Today’s Change

(-1.61%) $-0.67

Current Price

$40.90

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$538M

Day’s Range

$39.01 – $41.78

52wk Range

$32.55 – $75.85

Volume

30K

Avg Vol

365K

Gross Margin

55.80%

Dividend Yield

2.12%

Top of the Morning: AI — Bubble or Bust?

5:30 am

There is one blogger whom I read, Ed Zitron (“Where’s Your Ed At?”), who is rather (as in very) critical of everything to do with AI. He believes, with some evidence, that companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are losing money hand over fist and that, eventually, something major and unfortunate will happen to them.

Will that lead to a bubble burst of epic proportions? Will it take down – or severely damage – other companies? He’d argue yes, it will.

On the other side is the tremendous growth of this industry and the large amounts of investments being poured in to make it happen. There is a lot of promise in AI and some very interesting and useful applications coming out of it. Companies across the economy’s spectrum are investing in it and integrating it into their own systems and products. Will this work out? A lot of people who should know say it will.

The truth, as it often is, probably lies somewhere in between these two extremes.

ICYMI: Thursday’s Scoreboard

6:45 am — NVO +0.37% in pre-market trading

Novo Nordisk (NVO 0.10%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

Apple Trims China Fees to Head Off Beijing Probe

6:00 am — AAPL unchanged in pre-market trading

Apple (AAPL 2.15%) is lowering its App Store commission fees in mainland China following intense regulatory pressure in its second-largest market. Starting Sunday, standard fees for in-app transactions will drop from 30% to 25%, while small business rates will slide from 15% to 12%. The move follows similar antitrust concessions in the EU and U.S., but carries unique weight in China, where “super apps” like Tencent‘s WeChat and ByteDance’s TikTok dominate the digital landscape. While the shift is expected to save developers over $870 million annually, it also signals a defensive posture by Apple as it attempts to stave off a formal antitrust investigation from Beijing.

• Eroding the Moat: This fee reduction directly benefits high-grossing international developers like Duolingo (DUOL +3.57%), which generates an estimated $50 million annually from Chinese users and will see an immediate boost to its local margins.
• Strategic Submission: By timing the announcement with “World Consumer Rights Day,” Apple is likely attempting to pre-empt a public shaming by state media, a tactic previously used to force corporate apologies in the region.

Today’s Change

(-2.15%) $-5.49

Current Price

$250.27

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$3.8T

Day’s Range

$249.87 – $256.32

52wk Range

$169.21 – $288.62

Volume

1.6M

Avg Vol

48M

Gross Margin

47.33%

Dividend Yield

0.41%

Before the Opening Bell

5:15 am

Wall Street is bracing for a volatile Friday as stock futures slide following a 700-point rout on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Geopolitical tensions reached a fever pitch with fresh strikes in Tehran and explosions in Dubai, sending Brent Crude oil prices above $100 per barrel despite a record 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release by the International Energy Agency. Investors are caught in a pincer move: an energy-supply shock that threatens to reignite inflation just as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is due for release. With markets already at their lowest levels of 2026, the potential for “sticky” inflation driven by $1.20-per-gallon gas price jumps has effectively priced out hopes for a spring interest rate cut.

• Energy Giants on Watch: While the broader market retreats, oil majors like ExxonMobil (XOM +1.86%) and Chevron (CVX +0.00%) are seeing heightened activity as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz puts 20% of global oil flow at risk.
• Economic Redline: Today’s PCE reading is paired with a critical revision of Q4 GDP; if growth continues to underperform while energy costs soar, the “stagflation” narrative could become the dominant market theme for the quarter.