Bitcoin is trading around $70,000 today – down roughly 44% from the $126,000 all-time high it hit in October 2025. The pullback hasn’t been driven by any single catalyst. Instead, it’s been a cascade: a U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran, surging oil prices, an escalating global tariff war, and a Federal Reserve stuck on pause. The question on every trader’s mind isn’t just “why” – it’s “what comes next?”
War, Oil, and the Macro Storm
On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran – the broadest Middle Eastern conflict in decades. Bitcoin dropped from $70,000 to below $63,000 within hours. Iran retaliated with missiles targeting Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf allies, and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. Crude briefly spiked above $119 per barrel before settling around $100.
The oil shock is the key transmission mechanism. As long as energy prices stay elevated, the re-inflation narrative hardens and Fed rate cuts keep slipping further away. That’s the macro backdrop squeezing Bitcoin right now.
Meanwhile, Trump’s expanding tariff agenda has compounded the pressure. A February court ruling struck down many existing tariffs, only for the administration to announce new 10-15% global duties within hours. Each escalation triggers risk-off positioning – money flowing out of Bitcoin and into gold, treasuries, and cash. The broader crypto market has shed more than $2 trillion since its October peak.
Yesterday, Bitcoin jumped back above $71,000 after Trump signaled the Iran conflict could resolve “very soon.” Oil pulled back, equities rallied, and Bitcoin followed. The pattern has been on repeat: geopolitical headline up, Bitcoin down. Headline eases, Bitcoin up. The question is whether a resolution holds – or whether it’s another head-fake in a grinding range.
The Bull Case Hiding in the Chaos
Despite the sell-off, structural forces are building beneath the surface. Wars are expensive – financing them requires more government borrowing, which expands deficits, increases liquidity, and weakens the dollar. That’s historically the exact environment where Bitcoin thrives. On-chain data shows whale addresses accumulating at unprecedented rates, and exchange reserves have dropped from $196.7 billion to around $184 billion as Bitcoin moves into long-term storage.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are also showing signs of life. After five weeks of outflows totaling $4 billion, inflows have returned – $619 million in the most recent week. The reversal is tentative, but it signals institutional money is testing the waters again.
Predict the Market with Duelbits
When the market is driven by headlines – a ceasefire rumor here, a tariff escalation there – it rewards those with a thesis and the conviction to back it. On Duelbits Predict, you can turn your view on world events into a market position.
Think the geopolitical storm will keep pushing Bitcoin lower? The “Will Bitcoin fall below $60K in 2026?” market is sitting at 77% Yes and 31% No. If you believe the sell-off is overblown and Bitcoin’s structural tailwinds will reassert themselves, you might see value on the other side.
Or maybe you’re tracking oil prices and the Fed, waiting for the macro winds to shift. The “Will Bitcoin cross $100K again?” market lets you stake your conviction on a timeline: Before April 2026 (7%), Before May (14%), Before June (25%), or Before July (33%). A ceasefire, a rate cut signal, or a single dovish remark from the Fed could shift sentiment overnight.
Final Word
Bitcoin’s price action is being shaped by forces far beyond the endemic market: war, tariffs, surging energy costs, and a Fed caught between inflation and growth. The bears see $60,000. The bulls see a liquidity-driven recovery back toward six figures. The crowd is split – and that’s exactly what makes this moment interesting.
Learn more about how Duelbits is bringing Bitcoin-powered prediction markets to life – where data meets conviction and users drive the market.
Disclaimer: This article is sponsored content and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Bitcoin Magazine. The information provided is for promotional purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Bitcoin Magazine does not provide financial advice or endorse any specific betting or trading strategies. The Duelbits platform is not intended for users in the United States. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and ensure compliance with local laws before engaging with any financial products or services mentioned herein.