will report fiscal third-quarter results late Tuesday as the stock remains pressured by concerns over its expensive AI initiatives. Analysts project EPS of roughly $1.70 on revenue near $16.91 billion, which would represent about 20% year-over-year revenue growth and roughly 16% profit growth. The company has beaten EPS estimates in four of the last eight quarters, while surpassing revenue forecasts in only two of those periods.
Stock prices have fallen nearly 60% from their September peak amid worries that its backlog is overly reliant on OpenAI and that AI investments may not deliver expected returns.
Key Highlights
- The company issued a statement late Sunday addressing Bloomberg reports that it had abandoned plans to expand a flagship AI data center in Texas with OpenAI; those reports had triggered a late Friday sell-off in Oracle shares.
- Jefferies analysts said the sell-off looks overdone and warned that investors may be undervaluing Oracle’s expanding opportunities beyond its ties to OpenAI head of today’s report.
- Wall Street will be watching growth at Oracle Cloud Infrastructure; consensus from Thill calls for about 86% growth, a sharp acceleration from Q2’s 68%.
- Oracle plans to cut thousands of jobs as it boosts spending on AI-focused data center capacity. The reductions, which could affect multiple divisions and begin this month, may see some roles replaced by AI-supported automation.
- Some commentators note that the strong demand for Oracle’s recent $25 billion bond sale, together with nearly $500 billion in performance obligations and about $300 billion of which are linked to OpenAI, suggests demand remains robust despite our forecast of negative free cash flow during construction.
- The crucial question is whether operating margins widen, as earnings growth currently is not keeping pace with sales. The company’s heavy investment in AI initiatives and data-center infrastructure could underpin longer-term growth.
Analysts Expectation
- A Baird analyst reiterated an “outperform” rating on Oracle (ORCL) and cut the price target to $200 from $300.
- Scotiabank cut its Oracle (ORCL) price target to $215 from $220 but retained a Sector Outperform rating.
- TD Cowen lowered its price target on Oracle (ORCL) to $250 from $350 while maintaining a Buy rating.
ORCL Q1 2026 earnings after market (4:05 pm et) Tuesday March 10, 2026 
Expected Move by Option Expiration
Options flow shows a large net positive open interest at 160 strike (88,703.365 contracts) and a net negative open interest at 140 strike (-63,462.087 contracts) across expiries from March 2026 to Dec 2028. While put/call ratio for the next 4 upcoming expiries favors more calls option.
Technical Analysis Perspective
- ORCL broke above its April 2025 uptrend in late October 2025, then reversed sharply, erasing over 90% of that advance.
- Last Tuesday the stock cleared a falling-wedge–like (bullish) pattern; that zone now offers strong support near 139–138.
- Additional support sits in the 148–144 band.
- Bull case: holding 139–138 could fuel a rally toward 165, with further upside to 172–173.
- Bear case: a sustained break below 138 would likely open a decline to the 135–119 base.
Daily Candlestick Chart
ORCL Seasonality Chart:
Since 2022, ORCL has seen March close with 3.2% rise in 80% of years and April with a 4.2% decline in 50% of years.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It does not intend to encourage the purchase of any asset in any way and does not constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation, or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, and therefore any investment decision and the associated risk belong to the investor. Additionally, we do not offer any investment advisory services.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.
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