Bitcoin hovered near $89,000 as a new institutional report pointed to a more resilient, macro-driven market structure, while a large options expiry this week keeps $90,000 in focus for traders.
A steadier phase, shaped by macro and positioning
Bitcoin is entering 2026 in a firmer state after excess leverage was flushed out in last year’s fourth-quarter selloff, according to a quarterly report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released Tuesday.
The report said Bitcoin is acting more like a macro-sensitive asset shaped by global liquidity, institutional positioning, and portfolio rebalancing.
“We believe that crypto markets are entering 2026 in a healthier state,” the report said, adding that the macro backdrop and monetary policy “should be supportive.”
One forward-looking gauge is Coinbase’s Global M2 Money Supply Index, which the firm said has historically led Bitcoin’s price by roughly 110 days.
The index remains positively aligned with the current quarter, though money supply growth is expected to moderate later in the period.
Derivatives positioning supports the thesis.
Open interest in Bitcoin options has overtaken perpetual futures, with more investors paying for downside protection rather than adding directional leverage.
“This week’s market landscape presents an intriguing dilemma for directional and day traders,” VALR co-founder and CEO Farzam Ehsani told Decrypt.
On-chain data shows tokens changing hands more quickly late last year, and the share of long-held supply edged lower, suggesting investors were reallocating rather than exiting.
Sentiment has softened since October, slipping from optimism to caution.
The report cautioned that slowing liquidity growth, renewed inflation pressures, or geopolitical shocks could test the market’s durability.
Bitcoin is up 0.45% on the day to $88,868 and down 0.64% over the past seven days.
Options expiry tilts bearish below $90,000
A $10.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Friday is a key near-term catalyst, with bearish bets holding the advantage unless bulls force a breakout above $90,000, according to options data analysis.
Calls dominate open interest with $6.6 billion versus $4.2 billion in puts, but positioning does not translate to control.
Deribit leads with a 78.7% market share, followed by OKX at 6.3% and CME at 5%.
Less than 17% of Jan. 30 call interest at Deribit sits below $92,500.
Deep in-the-money calls are costly for most retail traders, with examples showing a $70,000 Feb. 27 call at 0.212 BTC versus 0.109 BTC for an $80,000 call, while far out-of-the-money $110,000 calls can cost below 0.002 BTC.
Many $100,000-and-higher calls reflect covered call strategies used to earn premiums rather than pure bullish wagers.
Indicative outcomes for Friday at Deribit show puts favored by $775 million if Bitcoin settles between $86,000 and $88,000, puts favored by $325 million between $88,001 and $90,000, and calls favored by $220 million between $90,001 and $92,000.
As long as the price stays below $90,000, the edge leans to bearish strategies.