Week Ahead: Fed, Shutdown Risk, and Earnings Set Up a High-Stakes Week

Key Highlights

Roughly 20% of the S&P 500 will release quarterly results.
Reports include , , , and .
likely to keep rates unchanged Wednesday amid questions about its independence.
Gold topped $5,000/oz for the first time, extending a rally driven by geopolitical shifts under President Trump and investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies. The metal has more than doubled in two years and is up over 15% YTD as the “debasement” trade gains traction. Investors are now eyeing Trump’s Fed chair pick — a dovish choice could lift bets on rate cuts and further support bullion.
continued to climb, building on Friday’s nearly 3% jump as a softer dollar supported base metals.
Aluminum, zinc, and copper, along with precious metals, are benefiting as growing dollar bearishness makes dollar-priced materials cheaper for many buyers.
The dollar slipped versus most major currencies on Monday as investors weighed whether U.S. intervention in Japan’s currency market could further dent confidence in the reserve currency.
Senate GOP leaders intend to refuse Democrats’ call to separate DHS funding and instead pass the remaining portions of a large spending bill to help avert a partial government shutdown this week.
US natural gas topped $6 for the first time since 2022 as a winter storm knocked nearly 10% of US production offline while heating and power demand surged, the highest levels since Dec. 2022, when booming European LNG demand followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Stock futures slid Sunday ahead of this week’s Fed rate decision and mounting fears of a second government shutdown in months, with futures down 0.6%, S&P 500 off 0.7%, and futures lower by 1% as of 6 p.m. ET.

Busy week ahead: about one-fifth of the S&P 500 and four of the Magnificent Seven report earnings, including Microsoft, Meta, Tesla on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, plus , , , , , and more. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady as Chair Jerome Powell enters his final months.

After a geopolitics-focused start to the year, investors may shift their attention this week to AI-driven earnings prospects and the interest-rate outlook, with a heavy slate of corporate results and a Fed meeting ahead.

U.S. stocks stumbled recently amid fallout from President Donald Trump’s hardline push to acquire Greenland, which raised the risk of a new trade clash with Europe.

US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar

Markets are pricing in virtually no chance of a rate cut at Wednesday’s meeting and only slim odds in March or April, easing the pressure on the decision itself. Instead, attention is on whether Chair Jerome Powell signals plans to remain on the Fed board after his term ends in May, which could curb President Trump’s sway over future policy. Investors will also watch for any change in his assessment of a “still cooling” labor market. Key data ahead: November trade balance on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET and December on Friday at the same time.

The Jan. 30 federal funding deadline is also in focus as Congress haggles over a continuing resolution to keep the government open. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, President Trump said he expects another shutdown.

Economic Calendar

Mon, Jan 26: Durable goods orders (Nov)
Tue, Jan 27: Consumer confidence (Jan)
Wed, Jan 28: FOMC rate decision; Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference.
Thu, Jan 29: U.S. trade deficit (Nov); wholesale inventories (Nov); factory orders (Nov); initial jobless claims (week ending Jan 24)
Fri, Jan 30: Producer Price Index (Dec)

Earnings Calendar:

• Monday, Jan. 26 – Key Earnings:

(NUE), (RYAAY), Brown & Brown (BRO), (WRB), Steel

Dynamics (STLD)

Tuesday, Jan. 27 – Key Earnings:

(UNH), (RTX), Boeing (BA), (TXN), (NEE), (UNP), (HCA), (NOC), United Parcel Service (UPS), General Motors (GM)

Wednesday, Jan. 28 – Key Earnings:

Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), Holdings (ASML), (IBM), GE Vernova (GEV), AT&T (T), (NOW), (PGR), (SBUX)

Thursday, Jan. 29 – Key Earnings:

Apple (AAPL), Visa (V), (MA), (CAT), (SAP), (TMO), (HON), (LMT), (BX)

Friday, Jan. 30 – Key Earnings:

(XOM), Chevron (CVX), (AXP), (VZ), (CL)

Tesla (TSLA) reports late Wednesday, with analysts expecting EPS down 38% and revenue off 3.7%, per FactSet. Q4 deliveries fell 15.6% to 418,227 vehicles from 495,570 a year earlier. Beyond the headline numbers, investors will focus on Elon Musk’s updates on robotaxis, Cybercab production, unsupervised FSD, Tesla’s AI chips and Optimus, plus 2026 EV sales and FSD adoption targets. The stock is down year-to-date and below its late-December peak.

Microsoft (MSFT) reports fiscal Q2 results late Wednesday, with FactSet calling for 21% EPS growth on a 15% revenue gain, and a moderation next quarter to 15% EPS and 16% sales growth. Shares rallied Friday but remain in a four-month downtrend. Beyond results and guidance, investors will focus on AI data center capex plans and monetization of Copilot AI services.

Apple (AAPL) reports fiscal Q4 results late Thursday, with Wall Street expecting 11% growth in both revenue and earnings, helped by strong iPhone 17 demand. Rising memory costs could pressure margins, and the stock has lagged amid delays to its AI strategy, including postponed Siri upgrades.

Meta (META) reports Q4 results Wednesday as it tries to recover from the post–Q3 sell-off sparked by a higher-than-expected 2026 spending outlook and worries over AI investment payoffs. Analysts see Q4 EPS up 2% and revenue up 21%. The stock has been in a downtrend since September.

IBM (IBM) reports Q4 results Wednesday after the close, with FactSet projecting 9% growth in both adjusted EPS and revenue; shares are hovering near lows of an 11-week flat base.

ASML (ASML) posts Q4 early Wednesday, with analysts expecting EPS up 24% and revenue up 16%; the stock is extended, up about 30% in January.

(LRCX) reports late Wednesday, with EPS seen up 29% and sales up 20% year over year. Peer reports Thursday, with forecasts for 7% EPS growth and a 6% revenue gain; KLAC is up 21% from an early January breakout.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron report Q4 Friday morning, both facing expected full-year profit declines. Chevron’s Q4 EPS is seen down 31%, while Exxon’s is expected to rise 1.8%, its first profit growth since Q2 2024. Investors will focus on production plans and Venezuela exposure.

Technical Analysis

DJIA Index

The DJIA is still moving within the uptrend channel that started from August 2025 lows.

The index is currently trading inside rectangle like formation.

Prices are coiling between 49,700 to 48,450.

A break above or below this range is likely to set the next direction.

DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index

The NDX continues to face resistance around 25,870–25,900.
While this ceiling holds, trading is likely to stay range-bound between 25,900 and 25,260 with extra support near 24,650.
A clear break below 25,260 would increase downside risk toward 24,650.
If 25,300 holds on repeated tests, expect continued choppy action between 25,900 and 25,300.

NDX Daily Candlestick Chart

SPX Index

SPX has been hovering around 6,900 region level since early January.
7000 is a strong psychological barrier ahead of bulls.
A range trade between 7000 to 6880 is name of the game for now.
A break below 6,880 would open the door to a deeper pullback toward 6,830.

SPX Daily Candlestick Chart

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

The U.S. weekly market probability map for Jan 29 – 30, 2026 suggests a strong start next week, followed by mixed sentiment.
These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
The sentiment readings are driven by a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belong to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.

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