YArthur Hayes has shared an hypthosesis as to why a Bitcoin bull run is very much in the works in 2026. This comes even as market fundamentals say otherwise, given its current momentum.
Arthur Hayes Hints at Potential Bitcoin Bull Run in 2026
In a recent X post, the BitMex founder highlighted that the BTC price could be set for a rally this year thanks to improving macroeconomic factors. He cited a Bloomberg report where it was reported that the yen jumped to its highest since August.
“Very bullish if true for BTC. This assumes Fed prints dollar, creates banking reserves. dollars are then sold to buy yen,” he said. If the Fed is manipulating the yen, we will see its b/s grow via the Foreign currency denominated assets line item which comes out weekly in the H.4.1 release,” Hayes said.
He drew attention to reports that the New York Fed conducted dollar-to-yen checks to support the Japanese currency. It must be added that no intervention has been made by the treasury yet.
However, Hayes shared that the Bitcoin bull run would happen if this policy were implemented. It would, in turn, have a direct effect on the crypto market.
This occurred just after the BOJ kept its interest rates unchanged last Friday following rumors of a hike in interest rates. The event has kept markets stable following previous concerns of a possible crash in the market.
According to Bloomberg, the Japanese yen rose about 1.75% to reach a value of 155.63 per dollar. This is a continuation of the rise seen in Asian trading hours of the day. This is the currency’s strongest level since December.
Instead of the initial predictions of a BTC price crash to $70,000 on the movement of the yen, Hayes believes the reverse could happen if the Fed makes this move, supporting the Bitcoin bull run case.
What’s Next for BTC? Crypto Traders Place Their Bets
While the founder projected a rally, some traders are pricing in its possible next price. Polymarket data shows that more investors think the coin is going to tank to 80k before making a move up.
The Bitcoin bull run case has not been helped by the activities of institutions. Yesterday alone, the Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $104 million. This is not surprising since it is now five days straight of selling activities for this fund. In the last week alone, this fund has seen more than $1.4 billion leak out. 
Source: SoSoValue
This is a significant turnaround from its past week’s performance, as its BTC funds recorded the best week since the October crash. Experts had started to forecast a rally for the coin thanks to the momentum.