Bitcoin’s positioning relative to gold continues to deteriorate, challenging the long held narrative of bitcoin as digital gold.
While gold pushes to fresh record highs just below $4,900 an ounce and is up roughly 12% year to date, bitcoin is only marginally positive on the year and remains below $89,000.
This divergence is also clear across longer time frames. On both one year and five year views, gold has delivered better returns. Over five years, bitcoin is up around 150%, while gold has risen approximately 160%.
The BTC to gold ratio currently sits near 18.46, firmly below its 200 week moving average (WMA), which reflects the long term trend based on nearly four years of price data. The 200WMA stands around 21.90, placing the ratio roughly 17% below the 200WMA.
During the last major bear market in 2022, the ratio fell to more than 30% below the 200WMA and remained beneath it for over a year. The current breakdown began in November, suggesting that if history repeats, it could remain well below the 200WMA until late 2026.
The ratio peaked near 40.9 in December 2024, while since then bitcoin has declined roughly 55% against gold. Previous cycles saw even deeper drawdowns, with a 77% decline during the 2022 bear market and an 84% fall in the 2017 to 2018 cycle.