01/20 update below. This post was originally published on January 19
Bitcoin and gold have split in recent months as gold soars and the bitcoin price plummets—with U.S. president Donald Trump’s tariff trade war again threatening to weigh on the U.S. dollar.
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The bitcoin price has fallen sharply overnight, dropping from almost $96,000 per bitcoin to just over $90,000 in a matter of minutes, while gold hit a fresh all-time high after Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on eight Nato allies unless Denmark agreed to a deal for Greenland.
Now, as Bank of America’s chief executive issues a stark $6 trillion crypto warning, traders are braced for this week’s inflation reading to be higher than previously expected—triggering warnings of “unprecedented stagflation.”
01/20 update: Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates, has warned the latest weakness in the U.S. dollar shows his long predicted collapse in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is “happening now.”
“The existing fiat monetary order, the domestic political order, and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down, so we are at the brink of wars,” Dalio posted to X.
Last year, the U.S. dollar lost almost 10% as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index, with further losses expected alongside huge gains for gold, silver and the bitcoin price this year.
“It all is happening because of the big cycle that is driven by the five big forces,” Dalio wrote, referring to the forces he laid out in his book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, which are economic cycles, domestic disorder, great power conflicts, acts of nature and technological development.
Dalio pointed to a video that shows the era of U.S. and dollar dominance giving way to a new China-led cycle.
“When a new rising power gets strong enough to compete with the dominant power that is having domestic breakdowns external conflicts most typically wars take place,” Dalio said in the 2023 video. “Out of these internal and external wars come new winners and losers that then the winners get together to create the New World Order and the cycle begins again.”
Meanwhile, as the U.S. dollar is set for its largest daily fall in over a month, the bitcoin price has slipped under $90,000, giving up almost all of its 2026 gains, just as gold hits a fresh all-time high.
“Bitcoin is taking a double hit from tariffs,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro chief market analyst, said in emailed comments.
“Donald Trump’s intention to turn the U.S. into the world’s crypto capital has made crypto a kind of American asset. Therefore, the return of the ‘sell America’ trade quickly pulled the rug out from under the bitcoin bulls.”
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U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell grappled with the so-called debasement trade that boosted gold and the bitcoin price last year.
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Economists at Barclays and Morgan Stanley have increased their December U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) forecasts to 2.8% or 2.9%, while BNP Paribas’s Andy Schneider wrote in a note seen by Reuters that the reading will be “significantly” higher than last week’s 2.7% consumer price index (CPI).
The latest PCE data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices, will be released on Thursday, potentially reviving fears of so-called stagflation that sees sluggish economic growth combined with soaring prices.
“A coming collapse in the dollar will send consumer prices soaring,” Peter Schiff, a gold investor who is typically bearish on the dollar and critical of bitcoin, posted to X. “Get ready for unprecedented stagflation.”
Ahead of the latest inflation reading, the U.S. dollar has weakened as last year’s so-called debasement trade—which saw investors bet against the dollar and pile into scarce assets like bitcoin, gold, silver and copper alongside stocks—returned.
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The bitcoin price rally this year has been threatened by the latest Trump trade war that’s also hit the U.S. dollar and boosted gold.
Forbes Digital Assets
“President Trump’s fresh tariff threat to his trading partners and Nato allies over Greenland led to a U.S. dollar selloff,” David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said in emailed comments. “The Dollar Index snapped sharply lower to trade back under 99.00, having hit a six-week high at the end of last week.”
Gold and silver have both hit record highs as the U.S. dollar declined, with David Wilson, director of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas, telling Bloomberg that gold at $5,000 per ounce “looked like a big target” not that long ago, but is now within sight.
Meanwhile, traders are betting bitcoin price weakness continues due to the geopolitical uncertainty weighing on risk appetite.
“From here, it’s likely we’ll see further downside unless buyers step in, with strong support around $88,000,” Nic Puckrin, digital asset analyst and co-founder of the Coin Bureau, said in emailed comments, adding “the uncertainty and fears around Greenland are likely to get worse before they get better.”