TLDR:
- Global liquidity continues rising, and equity markets remain aligned with historical liquidity-led cycles.
- Bitcoin pricing reflects elevated fear despite supportive macro and financial conditions.
- Financial conditions indices show easing, not stress, across rates, credit, and the dollar.
- The 2026 market debate centers entirely on the future direction of global liquidity.
Global liquidity Bitcoin divergence is drawing attention across macro and crypto markets as 2026 approaches. Equities and credit continue to reflect expanding liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin, however, remains disconnected from these signals. Recent chart analysis shared by Julien Bittel presents a clear divergence that now defines the risk asset debate.
Global Liquidity Keeps Equities Anchored Near Record Levels
Julien Bittel recently shared a detailed macro thread comparing global liquidity with equity performance.
The analysis uses the GMI Daily Liquidity Composite with a twelve-week lead. This relationship has remained stable across multiple cycles.
From 2023 through 2024, liquidity trended higher with modest interruptions. Equity markets followed with volatility but maintained upward structure. When liquidity dipped in mid-2024, equities corrected shortly after.
Liquidity then rebounded aggressively into late 2024 and early 2025. That rebound accurately preceded the strong equity rally seen in 2025. This reinforced liquidity’s role as a forward indicator.
Current liquidity readings show a decisive move to new highs into 2026. Equity markets remain near record levels but have not fully matched the liquidity surge. Historically, such gaps tend to close through equity catch-up rather than liquidity reversal.
Bittel’s charts suggest equities are behaving as expected within a rising liquidity regime. Credit spreads remain contained. Broader risk assets continue to reflect expansion rather than contraction.
Bitcoin Divergence Signals Excess Fear, Not Macro Stress
A separate chart compares global liquidity with Bitcoin price behavior. Historically, Bitcoin acts as a high-beta response to liquidity changes. Rising liquidity has often produced amplified Bitcoin rallies.
That pattern broke during 2025. Liquidity accelerated while Bitcoin corrected sharply. The divergence widened as equities and other risk assets held firm.
Bittel notes that events around October temporarily disrupted Bitcoin price discovery. Since then, sentiment and positioning appear to dominate crypto pricing. Macro conditions do not confirm the level of caution reflected in Bitcoin.
Additional charts compare Bitcoin with a macro composite. This includes the dollar, interest rates, BTC-correlated commodities, and equity styles. The macro basket trends higher through 2025 and into 2026.
Bitcoin momentum, however, falls deep into negative territory. This creates what Bittel describes as an excess fear gap. Financial conditions indices remain stable to easing during this period.
Historically, such gaps do not persist for extended periods. Resolution typically comes through asset repricing or macro deterioration. Current data does not show broad tightening across liquidity or financial conditions.
Rates remain contained. Dollar pressure remains limited. Credit conditions remain supportive. These factors reduce the probability that Bitcoin weakness reflects systemic stress.
Instead, the divergence frames a sentiment-driven disconnect within crypto markets. Bittel emphasizes probabilities rather than forecasts. As long as liquidity continues rising, pressure builds on the divergence.
The broader market focus now rests on alignment. Either Bitcoin realigns with liquidity, or liquidity trends reverse. For now, global liquidity Bitcoin divergence remains the defining macro tension heading into 2026.
