Gold, silver, stock market: Harsha Upadhyaya of Kotak Mahindra AMC shares outlook 2026

Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO of Kotak Mahindra AMC, said 2026 is expected to be better than 2025 for stock market, which he described as a volatile and largely range-bound year due to elevated starting valuations, a slowdown in earnings growth and disruptions from global trade resets and other external factors. He noted that many of these headwinds appeared to be easing.

In an interview to Business Today, Upadhyaya said earnings growth is expected to move towards double digits in the second half of the current financial year and accelerate to mid-teens growth in 2027, marking a positive shift in outlook. He added that largecap valuations were broadly in line with long-term averages, which supported a more constructive view for 2026.

He highlighted that while the Nifty has risen about 10 per cent in 2025, the broader market significantly underperformed, with many midcap and smallcap stocks seeing deeper median declines. According to him, investors who invested directly in equities without adequate research and portfolio construction faced sharper erosion in returns. Mutual fund investments through systematic investment plans helped mitigate volatility, he said.

Upadhyaya said rising income levels and greater awareness of asset classes encouraged disciplined investing through SIPs, which he described as an effective way to navigate market volatility. 

On gold and silver, Upadhyaya said it was difficult to expect a repeat of the recent strong performance in 2026, but he remained positive on the medium-term outlook for precious metals.

“We do believe that there is money to be made. But the volatility will be higher given the fact that short-term performance has been strong. At higher levels, you are expected to see more volatility. However, if you manage your asset allocation and if you wade through that volatility, you should still be making reasonable money even in gold and silver,” Upadhyaya said.