Bitcoin rose from $88,000 in Asian hours to above $90,000 in European afternoon hours on Monday, but reasons for caution linger as U.S. markets take the baton.
BTC has tended to find early support during Asia and Europe hours in recent weeks, only to fade once U.S. investors return to the market.
That dynamic has made the U.S. session a key test for whether rallies can stick. Previous pushes above major levels, including $90,000, have often reversed during New York hours as hedges are added and profits are taken — often leading to hundreds of millions in liquidations amid the see-saw trading.
Derivatives positioning shows risk building alongside the price. Bitcoin futures open interest rose steadily as BTC pushed higher on Monday, climbing toward $60 billion across major venues, according to CoinGlass data.
Binance, CME and Bybit all saw notable increases, suggesting fresh leverage entering the market rather than short covering alone.
That dynamic has become familiar in recent weeks of price strength just outside U.S. hours followed by heavier selling once American traders come online.
The concern now is not the breakout itself, but whether the rally is supported by spot demand or increasingly dependent on leveraged futures.
Open interest rising alongside price does not automatically signal trouble, but it does raise the stakes. If the move holds, leverage can amplify upside. If momentum stalls, crowded positioning leaves the market vulnerable to fast pullbacks as long positions unwind.
The risk for bulls is that a failure to hold $90,000 during U.S. hours could reinforce the market’s recent pattern of lower highs and quick pullbacks.
A sustained move above the level, by contrast, would mark a break from the sell-the-open behavior that has defined much of December.