Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC USD Could Hit New All-Time Highs in 2026
In its latest outlook, Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will move beyond its current record of $126,080, which was set in early October, and break away from the traditional four-year cycle that has long shaped crypto market behavior, as per a Decrypt report.
Why Bitwise Says Bitcoin Will Break the Four-Year Market Cycle
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that, “Bitcoin has historically moved in a four-year cycle, with three significant ‘up’ years followed by a sharp pullback year. According to this cycle, 2026 should be a pullback year,” as quoted by Decrypt.
He pointed out that, “We don’t see that happening,” adding, “In our view, the forces that previously drove four-year cycles—the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts—are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” as quoted in the report.
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Institutional Adoption and Bitcoin ETFs Fuel Bullish Outlook
Bitwise also highlighted the steady flow of institutional money into crypto following the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, along with improving regulatory conditions, as key reasons Bitcoin could push to fresh highs.
Hougan added that, “We expect the combination of these factors will push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, relegating the four-year cycle to history’s dustbin,” as quoted by Decrypt.
Bitcoin Price Today
Bitcoin was recently trading around $87,800, up about 2% over the past 24 hours, but still more than 30% below its all-time high.
Bitcoin vs Stock Market: How BTC Has Performed Against Nasdaq and S&P 500
Despite reaching new highs earlier in 2025, Bitcoin is down nearly 18% over the past year, according to CoinGecko data. Over the same period, traditional stock markets have performed better, with the Nasdaq up 14.5% and the S&P 500 gaining 12%.
Bitcoin’s Correlation With Stocks Expected to Decline in 2026
Looking ahead, Bitwise expects Bitcoin’s correlation with equities to decline further in 2026, again citing regulatory progress and institutional adoption. The firm also predicts that Bitcoin, historically known for sharp price swings, will be less volatile than Nvidia, the world’s largest publicly traded company by market value, as per the report.
By combining the potential end of the four-year cycle with lower volatility and reduced correlation to stocks, Bitwise believes investors could benefit from what it described as a “trifecta” of strong returns, steadier price action, and diversification.
Ethereum and Solana Price Outlook Hinges on US CLARITY Act
The firm’s broader 2026 outlook includes several additional predictions. Bitwise expects crypto-related equities to outperform traditional tech stocks, believes that half of Ivy League endowments will make crypto investments, and forecasts new all-time highs for Ethereum and Solana, if the US CLARITY Act passes, as per the Decrypt report.
FAQs
What is Bitwise predicting for Bitcoin in 2026?
Bitwise believes Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in 2026.
How has Bitcoin performed compared to stocks over the past year?
Bitcoin is down nearly 18%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both up.