JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted Bitcoin-to-gold framework still points to a fair-value scenario around $170,000 if conditions stabilize. The model compares Bitcoin’s market size and volatility to gold and projects potential convergence over time.
recently traded around $91,000 – $92,000, far below that theoretical level but only slightly above the bank’s estimated production cost. JPMorgan cut that cost estimate from $94,000 to $90,000 after hashrate and difficulty dropped, reflecting miner exits and changes in network conditions.
The report links lower hashrate to renewed pressure on mining in China and retreat by high-cost miners elsewhere. As energy prices stay elevated, many producers have sold coins to cover rising expenses, which adds short-term selling pressure to the Bitcoin market.
JPMorgan still views production cost as a “soft floor” for Bitcoin price. However, if the asset trades below that level for an extended period, weaker miners may shut down, pushing the estimated cost base even lower.