UK property sales edge up in October

Activity in the UK property market showed signs of stabilisation in October, with a slight month-on-month rise in both residential and non-residential transactions, despite the autumn budget looming on the sector.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for UK residential transactions in October 2025 stood at 98,450. While this marks a 2% decline from the same month in 2024, it represents a 2% increase compared with September, suggesting a modest recovery.

“Typically on the lead-up to any budget announcement, the housing market can witness a degree of hesitation,” said Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark. “However, any such impact beforehand is not an exact science, and with lower base rates than only 12 months ago, it is positive to see forward momentum in housing transactions.”

Read more: What is the new mansion tax? All you need to know

The non-seasonally adjusted data painted a similar picture. Residential transactions reached 116,230 in October, reflecting a 4% increase compared with the same month last year and a 13% jump from September 2025.

For non-residential transactions, the seasonally adjusted estimate for October stood at 10,250, down 29% year-on-year, but up 4% on the previous month. The non-seasonally adjusted figure rose to 11,290, marking a 26% year-on-year decline, but a 10% increase from September.

The release of the autumn budget had an impact on sentiment, with many in the industry watching for signs of new measures aimed at stimulating the housing market.

Despite speculation that some buyers may take a “wait and see” approach, Lee Williams, national sales manager at Saffron for Intermediaries, said that the market showed resilience in October. “Confidence has remained strong in sections of the market, supported by easing inflationary pressures and a growing range of competitive mortgage products,” he noted.

Read more: What the budget means for your finances

However, some were disappointed by the lack of specific measures to support first-time buyers. “It was disappointing not to witness any support for first-time buyers or those considering downsizing,” said Nathan Emerson of Propertymark. “There has been what feels like a missed opportunity to promote the concept of people being able to move more easily to a property that fits their precise needs.”

Nick Hale, CEO of Movera, acknowledged that while the budget introduced a mansion tax on properties valued over £2m, it did not have a widespread impact on the market.

“The impact of this on supply and demand should be limited to the very upper end of the market,” Hale commented. “The most significant concern remains the lack of new assistance for first-time buyers.”

Still, Hale remained optimistic, adding, “Many lenders have cut mortgage rates in recent weeks. Brokers should be advising their clients to take advantage of these deals now. With inflation on its way down, another base rate cut could follow in a matter of weeks, leading to even more enticing rates.”

Across the UK, regional differences in market activity remain stark. Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, pointed out that some areas are showing stronger momentum. “Outside the south-east, the £500,000–£800,000 bracket is bucking the trend, with momentum gathering pace,” he said. “Prime buyers are moving at pace with clarity now in mind.”

Leeming predicted that the post-budget market would see an increase in stock, particularly from homeowners adjusting their expectations around the £2m tax limit. “We might also see an increase in demand for homes under the tax limit, where buyers adjust budgets with household cash flow in mind,” he explained.

Read more: Nationwide cuts mortgage rates as other lenders hold steady amid budget announcement

Meanwhile, Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent, praised the resilience of transaction numbers despite the lack of government support. “Resilient transaction numbers suggest housing market activity will continue even without government assistance, which was so lacking in the budget,” said Leaf. “Transactions are a better barometer of market health than more volatile house prices.”

While the overall outlook for most buyers appears stable, there is growing concern about the impact of higher taxes on landlords and investors.

Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money, noted that the government’s decision to increase property income tax by 2% could create further strain on rental supply.

“The confirmation of a 2% rise in property income tax could be the final straw for many landlords,” McGrath said. “Simultaneously, the new ‘mansion tax’ surcharge risks injecting a chilling effect at the top of the market.”

Hamza Behzad, business development director at Finova, agreed that the new tax measures would likely worsen rental pressures. “The mansion tax and higher taxes on landlords may worsen rental pressures, making lender support and efficient decision-making even more critical,” he said.

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