11/30 update below. This post was originally published on November 29
Bitcoin and crypto prices have lost steam in recent months after surging into 2025 (even as a surprise BlackRock update hits the market).
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The bitcoin price, up from 2024 lows of just over $40,000, limped to an all-time high of $126,000 in October before falling sharply as fears of a bitcoin price crash nightmare emerged.
Now, as eagle-eyed traders spot a quiet China signal that’s just started flashing, some of the most bullish bitcoin and crypto speculators have said they expect a December Federal Reserve bombshell to power a bitcoin price boom.
11/30 update: The odds of White House national economic council director Kevin Hassett, a former advisor to bitcoin and crypto exchange Coinbase, being named as the next chair of the Federal Reserve in December have spiked this week—fueling further bets on risk assets like bitcoin.
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Fed chair Jerome Powell is poised to end the reduction of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening—predicted to fuel a bitcoin price boom.
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“I think that there’s a very good chance that the president will make an announcement before Christmas,” U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC following a Bloomberg report that named Hassett as the current front-runner. “But it’s [Trump’s] prerogative, whether it’s … before the Christmas holidays, and the New Year’s. But things are moving along very well.”
Hassett’s odds of being named as U.S. president Donald Trump’s pick for Fed chair have spiked to around 34% on the prediction platform Polymarket, with the odds of “no announcement this year,” falling from 60% to 44%.
“If he were to ask me to be Fed chair, then of course I would have to say yes, because I want to serve my country and I want to serve my president,” Hassett told Fox News last week.
Hassett, a Trump loyalist who worked with the president in his first term, shares Trump’s view that interest rates should be brought sharply lower, warning that higher rates have risked an economic slowdown through 2025.
“Hassett is viewed as a dove and therefore likely to support the further easing of monetary policy,” David Morrison, senior market Analyst at Trade Nation, said in emailed comments.
If Hassett is named by Trump as Fed chair Jerome Powell’s successor, it will likely weigh on the U.S. dollar, which weakens as bets on interest rates cuts rise.
“Expectations of an easing of the Fed’s monetary policy remain a key factor weighing on the U.S. dollar, with Kevin Hassett increasingly likely to be appointed as Fed chairman,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro chief market analyst, said via email.
Hassett also held a central role in the White House’s crypto market working group, which is part of the National Economic Council.
The working group released a report earlier this year that outlined recommendations for how bitcoin and crypto should be regulated, including language around banking, Trump’s planned bitcoin reserve and crypto stockpile, as well as stablecoins, taxes, and illicit finance.
“Quantitative tightening we think will end December 1, that’s a de facto easing,” Cathie Wood, the chief executive of technology and disruption investor Ark Invest, said during a November podcast.
The Fed’s quantitative tightening program, which began in 2022, has reduced the Fed’s balance sheet to $6.6 trillion, from around $9 trillion at its peak, putting pressure on risk assets such as bitcoin as the Fed tries to suck liquidity from the system.
Wood pointed to easing liquidity conditions when she reaffirmed Ark’s long-term $1.5 million bitcoin price prediction.
Meanwhile, Tom Lee, the chair of crypto investment company BitMine Immersion Technologies and the chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital, told CNBC that he expects the downward bitcoin price pressure to soon end following the sell-off that began in mid-October.
“When we look at those prior corrections, even bitcoin in the last few years … each of them had the recovery, the rise from the low was faster than the drip to the bottom,” Lee said, predicting the bitcoin price could climb back above $100,000 in December and may even chart a fresh all-time high.
“The recovery from there to all-time highs will be faster than the decline. That’s what happened in every crypto decline, because what you have is all the spooled up energy. People are sitting and waiting and there’s panic selling, forced sellers, but the buyers are being patient. That’s what will happen.”
Lee pointed to soaring expectations that the Federal Reserve will flip dovish during its December interest rate meeting, with the market now pricing in a near-90% chance of another 25 basis point interest rate cut—which would be the Fed’s third since September.
“Bitcoin has rebounded above the $90,000 mark amid rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut,” Greg Waisman, chief operating officer at Mercuryo, said in emailed comments, adding the company has seen “consistent buying patterns” on its platform.
“Even long-time bitcoin sceptics now acknowledge its role as a barometer of risk sentiment across global financial markets. The bitcoin price simply can’t be ignored. We’re seeing a Thanksgiving bounce across digital assets, led by the world’s largest cryptocurrency and supported by the recent rally in global tech stocks.”
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The bitcoin price has dropped sharply from its all-time high of $126,000 per bitcoin—though many traders are issuing bullish bitcoin price predictions.
Forbes Digital Assets
Elsewhere, institutional interest in bitcoin has been named as another catalyst that could push the bitcoin price higher, helped by the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock dragging the rest of Wall Street into bitcoin and crypto over the last two years.
“Institutions are just able to start getting involved,” Joseph Raczynski, a futurist at JT Consulting & Media, said in Finder’s latest bitcoin price prediction survey, adding he expects the bitcoin price to rocket to over $151,000 in December. “It’s just the beginning.”
In the same survey, Ben Ritchie, the managing director of Alpha Node Global, predicted the bitcoin price could top $200,000 this year as it gains broader acceptance as a store of value for institutional and sovereign treasuries and Fed interest rate cuts fuel bitcoin buying.
“Our bitcoin outlook is driven by fixed supply, rising institutional demand and broader acceptance as a store of value for institutional and sovereign treasuries. We believe further U.S. interest rate cuts will continue to support price action into the year’s end.”