Flash crash wipes billions from market capitalisation
The crypto earthquake of October has been followed by a sizeable aftershock this week, with Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) caught in a rapid shift in risk sentiment that is currently engulfing global equity markets.
Crypto’s recent woes began on 10–11 October, when a sudden flash crash erased more than $370 billion in market capitalisation within hours. This came just four days after Bitcoin hit a fresh record high of $126,272, cruelly crushing bullish euphoria.
The October crypto sell-off was triggered by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of escalated tariffs on Chinese imports – a move that sparked a sell-off in US equities and ignited the largest 24-hour wipeout in crypto history.
Correlations break down as crypto ignores rallies
Notably, despite US equity markets quickly recovering and rebounding to new highs, crypto markets ignored the rally in risk assets (with which they are often correlated) and the concurrent surge higher in gold (with which they sometimes share safe-haven status).
This decoupling from previous correlations was likely due to crypto assets being left in a daze after the crash, coupled with an absence of fresh crypto-specific bullish catalysts needed to ignite a recovery.
While the break in the upside correlation with risk assets (equities) has been frustrating, what is making matters worse is that Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets remains strong on the downside – when risk assets sell off as witnessed this week.
Bitcoin dips below $100,000 for first time in months
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,881 (down 0.40%), having hit a low of $98,898 overnight – its first dip below $100,000 in four and a half months.
From its 6 October high of $126,272 to the overnight low of $98,898, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 21.5%, meeting the technical criteria for entering a bear market.
ETH has fared even worse: at the current price of $3262, it sits 34% below its late-August record high of $4955.
Looking ahead
The near-term path for crypto hinges on three key pressures:
In summary, until macro headwinds ease or a fresh catalyst emerges, crypto remains vulnerable to further aftershocks, with the mid $90,000’s now a critical support for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin technical analysis
As shown on the monthly chart below, Bitcoin in October once again rejected the multi-month trendline resistance currently near $128,000 (dating back to the $19,666 high of December 2017), before falling more than 20% into this week’s $98,898 low.