Bitcoin and crypto prices have swung wildly in recent weeks as Wall Street quietly gears up for a major, $6.6 trillion Federal Reserve flip.
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The bitcoin price has dropped back from its all-time high of $126,000 per bitcoin but has stabilized after a “flash crash” sparked fears of total collapse and an “imminent dollar and financial crisis.”
Now, as Binance’s founder issues a huge, $28 trillion bitcoin prediction, bullish bitcoin and crypto traders have said a bitcoin price rally could mean the price never drops below $100,000 again.
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Bitcoin has rocketed into a new week, with bullish traders hopeful the bitcoin price will set a new all-time high.
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“The next absolute positive confirmation would be a fresh all-time-high in bitcoin, as if it comes this would signify the death knell for those hanging onto the halving cycle as a reason for bitcoin prices to peak now,” Geoffrey Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, said in an emailed note and adding that, “if this week goes well, bitcoin may never go below $100,000 again.”
Kendrick pointed to bitcoin and crypto exchange-traded fund (ETFs) flows, the rising possibility of a U.S.-China trade deal, and an expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week as helping to lift the bitcoin price from lows of near $100,000 earlier this month.
“I think the halving cycle is dead (ETF flows matter more), but it will take confirmation to convince everyone of this,” Kendrick wrote.
Bitcoin’s having cycle, which sees the number of new bitcoin issued to miners who secure the network and process transactions cut by half every four years or so, has coincided with bitcoin price booms and busts over the last 15 years, however, increasingly analysts say they believe institutional bitcoin and crypto adoption has a bigger impact on the bitcoin price.
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The bitcoin price has dipped from its all-time highs but remains well above the closely-watched $100,000 per bitcoin level.
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“This cycle of rotation, not rejection, reveals structural integration,” analysts with the Bitfinex crypto exchange wrote in emailed market commentary. “If it holds, crypto could become a barometer for global capital adjustment, signalling how markets adapt in real time to macro shocks.”
The bitcoin and crypto market is also closely watching for signs the Federal Reserve will follow other major central banks in swinging dovish in the months ahead.
“Looking ahead, policy divergence will shape near-term sentiment,” the Bitfinex analysts wrote. “The Federal Reserve is juggling oil-driven inflation with softening manufacturing and services data. Meanwhile, the ECB and Bank of England lean dovish, and the BOJ faces increasing scrutiny over its yield curve and currency defence stance. In this environment, cryptoʼs relative calm may reflect maturation in structure, liquidity depth, and institutional alignment.”