The oil market is rallying this morning, with WTI up around 2.8% at the time of writing, taking it back above US$60/bbl. The catalyst: the US administration placing sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, which produce more than 5m b/d of oil. Clearly, the concern for the market is oil flows from Russia. The key question is whether these sanctions are enough to deter buyers of Russian oil, specifically China and India.
Sanctions on companies producing more than 5m b/d of oil are significant. However, if we look back to January, the Biden administration imposed similar sanctions on Russian oil producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, along with sanctions on a large share of Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers. These sanctions had little impact on Russian oil exports.
We must wait and see if these latest sanctions are more effective or if Russia can circumvent them, as it did with curbs earlier this year. Regardless, a tougher stance on Russia by the US administration marks a shift in policy. It increases the risk of further sanctions against Russia (and potentially buyers of Russian oil) if there’s little progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Meanwhile, the EU approved a 19th sanction package against Russia, after Slovakia lifted its veto on the measure. This will include sanctions on a further 117 vessels, which form part of Russia’s shadow fleet and reportedly two independent Chinese oil refineries. In addition, the package includes a ban on Russian LNG, which would come into full effect from 1 January 2027.