Bitcoin surged past $114,000 on Monday, extending a rally that has defied its usual September weakness. The move comes after bitcoin briefly tested support near $107,000 earlier this month, only to rebound over the course of the month.
The gain marks bitcoin’s strongest September since 2012, with prices up roughly 8% on the month. Technical traders note that BTC has broken out of a descending wedge formation on the short-term charts — a bullish setup that, if confirmed, could open the door to a push toward $120,000.
What makes the advance particularly notable is the backdrop of historically low volatility. Bitcoin historically underperforms in September but then surges in October, November and December.
Despite the latest breakout, bitcoin’s third-quarter performance has lagged behind its peers. BTC posted gains of about 7% in Q3 2025, a stark contrast to Ethereum’s 68% rally over the same period.
Eric Trump predicts that Q4 will be “unbelievable”
Bitcoin’s rally has drawn fresh commentary from Eric Trump, executive vice president of the Trump Organization and a longtime crypto advocate.
In recent interviews, Trump reiterated his bold $1 million price target, urging investors to buy now.
“Volatility is your friend. Buy right now. Shut your eyes. Hold it for the next five years,” Trump said.
Trump argued that global monetary easing and a swelling money supply will ultimately propel bitcoin much higher. He also pointed to seasonality, noting that Q4 has historically been bitcoin’s strongest quarter, averaging gains of roughly 85% in prior cycles.
The remarks echoed his August appearance at a Bitcoin conference in Hong Kong, where he told attendees, “We haven’t even scratched the surface.”
The comments come as the Trumps have expanded their bitcoin and crypto ventures over the past year. Eric Trump and his brother Donald Trump Jr. co-founded American Bitcoin, a mining company in which the Trump siblings hold roughly 20% ownership, with the remainder controlled by Hut 8. The firm recently secured $220 million in funding and is preparing for a September Nasdaq listing via its merger with Gryphon.
Bitcoin to $200,000 this year?
Historically, the fourth quarter has delivered some of bitcoin’s biggest rallies — averaging gains of about 85% between 2013 and 2024. Recent years fit the pattern: bitcoin surged 48% in Q4 2024 and 57% in Q4 2023, according to market data.
In past bull cycles, the moves were even more dramatic, with Q4 2017 delivering a 215% jump and Q4 2020 soaring 168%, each setting the stage for massive follow-through rallies.
Earlier this month, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee reiterated his $200,000 target for 2025, and prediction markets still assign a small probability of hitting that milestone by year-end.
Adding fuel, monetary policy appears to be turning supportive: with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, risk assets — including crypto — could be poised for another late-year rally.