“Vanguard will reportedly lift the ban on bitcoin ETFs for its brokerage clients, potentially opening the floodgates for $11T of capital. If the same share of its clients’ AUM allocated to bitcoin ETFs as BlackRock, that’s a ~$74B unlock.”
Pivotal Week Ahead: US Jobs Report in Focus
The week ahead could prove pivotal for the US BTC spot ETF market and BTC’s price trajectory. Crucial labor market and services sector data could dictate the Fed’s October interest rate decision and outlook for rate cuts.
Economists forecast the ISM Services PMI to hold steady at 52 in September. A pickup in services sector activity, higher prices, and rising employment would signal economic momentum, given that the services sector accounts for around 80% of the US GDP. Conversely, a lower PMI reading, weaker labor market data, and softer prices could boost bets on a Fed rate cut.
However, with the Fed’s increased focus on the labor market, Friday’s US Jobs Report will be the main event. Resilient wage growth, higher-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, and steady unemployment may signal a pause in monetary policy adjustments. On the other hand, weaker labor market conditions could cement an October Fed rate cut, lifting sentiment.
Bitcoin’s continued pullback from its August record high of $123,731 also weighed on demand for Ethereum (ETH).
ETH Slides Below $4,000 as September ETF Outflows Accelerate
While Bitcoin dropped below the $110,000 level on falling institutional demand, Ethereum (ETH) tumbled below the psychological $4,000 level.
Despite rallying 4.14% on Saturday, September 27, ETH has plunged 10% in the current week. US ETH-spot ETF outflows sent the token crashing to a low of $3,829 on Thursday, September 25. Weekend price moves occurred after the ETF markets’ reporting week.
The US ETH-spot ETF market reported total net outflows of $795.8 million in the week ending September 26, resulting in outflows of $377.5 million month-to-date. Monthly outflows could continue pressuring ETH, barring a strong surge in demand during the final two sessions of the month.
Explore our ETF flow deep-dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.
Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook
Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:
- Legislative developments: the Market Structure Bill’s progress toward a Senate floor vote.
- US economic data: US Services PMI and labor market data.
- FOMC members’ speeches.
- US BTC-spot ETF flows.
BTC Price Scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario: Softer US economic data, dovish Fed rhetoric, progress on the Market Structure Bill, and ETF inflows. These factors could drive BTC toward its record high of $123,731.
- Bearish Scenario: Rising US stagflation concerns, hawkish Fed signals, legislative setbacks, or ETF outflows. These factors could drag BTC toward $100,000.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs signal a short-term bearish bias but bullish longer-term momentum.
- Upside Target: A breakout above $110,000 could pave the way to the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA may bring the record high of $123,731 into sight.
- On the downside, a drop below the 200-day EMA could enable the bears to test the crucial $100,000 psychological floor.