A divergence such as the current one appeared during the February 2021–April 2022 cycle, when Bitcoin carved out a comparable rising wedge. Back then, BTC broke below its wedge support and crashed from around $47,000 to nearly $15,500, a decline of over 65%.
If the fractal repeats, Bitcoin could face weeks, if not months, of bearish pressure, revisiting lower valuation zones before stabilizing. The $60,000–$63,000 region thus becomes the primary “line in the sand” for bulls to defend.
Macro Factors in Play
It is important to note that macroeconomic conditions differ vastly from the 2021-2022 zone.
Back then, the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates aggressively, draining liquidity from risk assets. However, the Fed is leaning toward rate cuts today, while Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows remain strong. These differences could soften the extent of any downturn.