The S&P 500 closed at a record on Thursday after the latest wave of labor market data cemented bets on a September rate cut with a major August nonfarm payrolls report on tap.
The market benchmark rose 0.8% to mark its 21st closing high of the year, based on preliminary figures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 350 points, or 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 1%. The Dow and Nasdaq finished a touch below their August closing highs.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note dropped to 3.59%. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.18%.
Updates on the labor market from ADP, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and the Labor Department continued to show signs of weakness, which sent odds of a September rate cut a tick higher to 97.4% from 96.5%. Odds of three quarter-point cuts through the end of the year also jumped to 48% from 43.1%. Odds of a half-point in cuts this year were at 44.6%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, writes that the August nonfarm payrolls report will be the more important datapoint.
“In the short term, markets may embrace that data because it should increase the odds of Fed rate cuts,” Larkin writes. “But if the numbers deteriorate too much, it could raise concerns about the health of the economy.”
Thursday’s stock market action featured strong breadth all day. The major indexes also stumbled at the start before picking up steam as the session rolled on. Both are positive signs for a market that seemed to lose some momentum in recent weeks.
The S&P 500 has closed above its intraday midpoint about 70% of the time since its April lows, Frank Cappelleri, founder of technical analysis firm CappThesis, tells Barron’s. Such moves are a key characteristic of a healthy market.
“This shows confidence among traders that the stocks they’re buying will finish the day stronger than they started,” Cappelleri says. “Bigger picture, it also reflects belief that the market can continue to advance. Looking ahead to tomorrow and the latest jobs report, the message is that traders are not bracing for a major negative surprise.”