Welcome to the Asia Pacific Morning Brief—your essential digest of overnight crypto developments shaping regional markets and global sentiment. This Monday’s edition is brought to you by Paul Kim. Grab a green tea and watch this space.
The crypto market in August is off to a challenging start. Last week, Bitcoin prices sharply fell, breaking below the $117,000–$120,000 range established since July 11. Bitcoin dropped nearly 4% over the week, with some altcoins plunging over 15%.
First by Powell, Second by NFP
Last week’s decline unfolded in two main phases. One cause was the remarks of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on Wednesday. The market had been highly anticipating a rate cut in September after the pause in July, but Powell poured cold water on these expectations.
Powell stated that the possibility of a September rate cut is still uncertain. While acknowledging signs of a potential recession, he explained that it is reasonable to keep rates steady as the inflationary effects of tariffs are yet to be confirmed.
He also emphasized that the labor market remains solid and near balance, urging the focus to shift from employment to inflation risks.
Interestingly, there was strong internal opposition within the Fed to this view. Fed Governor Christopher Waller pointed out that private sector employment growth has slowed significantly. Despite surface-level health, data revisions reveal weakness, prompting calls for preemptive rate cuts.
For now, Powell’s perspective aligns with the majority within the Fed, and the market has to temper its expectations for a September rate cut. Bitcoin prices fell to $115,800.
The nonfarm payroll (NFP) data was released on August 1, resulting in the second decline. The July NFP estimate among Wall Street analysts was around 110,000, but the actual figure came in at 73,000. This contradicts Powell’s optimistic outlook and indicates a significant deterioration in the US labor market.
More concerning was the major downward revision of May and June data by 258,000 jobs. The initially strong June NFP figure of 147,000 was mostly a statistical illusion. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised June’s figure to 14,000 and May’s to 19,000—the lowest in five years.
The official unemployment rate matched expectations at 4.2%, but the broader U-6 unemployment rate hit 7.9%, the highest since the COVID-19 crisis. The number of long-term unemployed and those seeking work for over 27 weeks also worsened. These indicators of a sharp economic downturn and labor market weakness caused a plunge in the US stock market. Bitcoin also retreated to around $112,000 on that day.
Macro Downturn Drags Corporate Buying and ETFs, Which Once Led the Rise
Throughout the week, major macroeconomic trends seemed to drag the crypto industry along. The inflows into spot-listed ETFs that had driven Bitcoin and Ethereum prices during July diminished significantly after July 30. On August 1, spot ETFs recorded their biggest single-day outflow since February this year.
Ethereum-buying companies, which were major drivers behind Ethereum’s price rise, also faltered. The week started positively: Sharplink Gaming confidently announced an additional $296 million Ethereum purchase and staking, while Bitmine, led by CEO Tom Lee, claimed Ethereum’s intrinsic value is $60,000.
Standard Chartered Bank forecasted that companies buying Ethereum would hold about 10% of the total supply, noting a strategic accumulation that has surpassed $10 billion—a 50-fold increase in just four months.
However, these firms were powerless against the price crash later in the week. Ethereum fell 7.2%, with top Ethereum-holding companies Sharplink Gaming (-30.80%) and Bitmine (-23.16%) stocks also plummeting.
Given this situation, bearish sentiment naturally spread. Crypto influencer Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, made bearish predictions for major cryptocurrencies. He predicted Bitcoin could fall to $100,000 and Ethereum to $3,000. Hayes cited upcoming US tariff legislation and slow global credit expansion as key factors.
Over the weekend, on-chain data caught attention with a concerning Ethereum metric. The Ethereum holder accumulation ratio dropped to 27.57%—the lowest in two months. This indicates investors are no longer aggressively increasing their ETH holdings.
US Stock Market Is the Key
The warm momentum from July disappeared suddenly amid this sharp decline. What lies ahead for crypto prices this week? The key will be whether the US stock market can rebound from the shock of the NFP data revision.
The US Employment Statistics Bureau has a history of revising annual nonfarm payroll data by over 800,000 jobs last year, revealing that these jobs never actually existed despite prior reports for the previous year. However, even that revelation did not trigger significant stock market volatility.
The steep drop last Friday was partly due to the recent US stock market hitting new highs smoothly; the weakening employment figures provided an opportune trigger for correction. If the US stock market recovers without further corrections, the crypto market is likely to bounce back as well.
However, if further corrections continue, Powell’s comments denying a September rate cut despite strong US employment will become crucial. CME Group’s FedWatch tool already forecasts three rate cuts within the year.
No major macroeconomic issues are expected this week, but US employment remains a critical focus. The Conference Board will release its Employment Trends Index on Monday, and this data could significantly impact US stock markets.
We wish our readers successful investments this week as well.
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